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Twentieth century shocks, trends and cycles in industrialized nations

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  • van Dijk, H.K.

Abstract

Using annual data on real Gross Domestic Product per capita of seventeen industrialized nations in the twentieth century the empirical relevance of shocks, trends and cycles is investigated. A class of neural network models is specified as an extension of the class of vector autoregressive models in order to capture complex data patterns for different countries and subperiods. Empirical evidence indicates nonlinear positive trends in the levels of real GDP per capita, time varying growth rates, switching behavior of individual countries with respect to their position in the distribution of real GDP per capita levels over time and club behavior with respect to convergence. Such evidence presents great challenges for economic modelling, forecasting and policy analysis in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • van Dijk, H.K., 2004. "Twentieth century shocks, trends and cycles in industrialized nations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaashoek, Johan F & van Dijk, Herman K, 2002. "Neural Network Pruning Applied to Real Exchange Rate Analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 559-577, December.
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    6. Alain Hecq & Franz C. Palm & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2000. "Permanent‐transitory Decomposition in Var Models With Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-532, September.
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    8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Pooter, M.D. & Ravazzolo, F. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, H.K., 2008. "Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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