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Drug-Related Violence and Forced Migration from Mexico to the United States

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Listed:
  • Eva Olimpia Arceo-Gómez

    (Division of Economics, CIDE)

Abstract

When President Felipe Calderón took office he declared a war on drug lords, thus initiating a war of attrition which has claimed more than 40,000 lives in the last 5 years. In this paper I document how this escalation of violence has led Mexicans living close to the northern border to migrate to the United States. Using data from the American Community Survey to estimate migration, and administrative death records to estimate murder rates, I present evidence that the United States southern states have seen the largest increases in Mexican migration from 2005 to 2010. I also show that these new migrants are college educated, which is in high contrast with the archetypical Mexican migrant in the United States. My analysis also shows that there is a correlation between business openings and murder rates in Mexico. I conclude that the war on drugs is making wealthy well-educated Mexicans leave the country, thus diminishing the available skilled labor force and investment needed for future economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Olimpia Arceo-Gómez, 2012. "Drug-Related Violence and Forced Migration from Mexico to the United States," Working Papers DTE 526, CIDE, División de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte526
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    File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/RePEc/emc/pdf/DTE/DTE526.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ibáñez, Ana Mari­a & Vélez, Carlos Eduardo, 2008. "Civil Conflict and Forced Migration: The Micro Determinants and Welfare Losses of Displacement in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 659-676, April.
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    4. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
    5. Catherine Rodriguez & Edgar Villa, 2012. "Kidnap risks and migration: evidence from Colombia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1139-1164, July.
    6. Nancy Lozano-Gracia & Gianfranco Piras & Ana Maria Ibáñez & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2010. "The Journey to Safety: Conflict-Driven Migration Flows in Colombia," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 157-180, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernandez-Dominguez Amilcar Orlian, 2020. "Effect of Actual and Perceived Violence on Internal Migration: Evidence from Mexico’s Drug War," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Illegal drugs; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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