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Did globalisation lead to segmentation? Identifying cross-country growth regimes in the long-run, 1870-2003

Author

Listed:
  • Gianfranco Di Vaio

    (LUISS Guido Carli University)

  • Kerstin Enflo

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

"Economic historians have stressed that income convergence was a key feature of the ëOECDñclubíand that globalization was among the accelerating forces of those process in the longñrun. This view has however been challenged, since it su§ers from an ad hoc selection of countries. In the paper, a mixture model is applied to a sample of 64 countries to endogenously identify the existence of crossñcountry growth regimes over the period 1870ñ2003. Results show that growth patterns were segmented in two worldwide regimes, the Örst one being characterized by convergence, and the other one denoted by divergence. This outcome is consistent with the predictions of recent growth theories. Interestingly, when three historical epochs are analyzed separately (1870ñ1913; 1913ñ1950; and 1950ñ2003), the dynamics which dominate over the whole period emerged only during the Second Global Wave. Therefore, history does not provide unambiguous evidence about globalization and growth."

Suggested Citation

  • Gianfranco Di Vaio & Kerstin Enflo, 2009. "Did globalisation lead to segmentation? Identifying cross-country growth regimes in the long-run, 1870-2003," Working Papers 9013, Economic History Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehs:wpaper:9013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization; Economic growth; Income convergence; Multiple regimes; Mixture models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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