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After the Golden Age: A Long‐Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded up, Slowed Down and Still Differ

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  • Terence C. Mills
  • N. F. R. Crafts

Abstract

This paper contains an econometric analysis of international convergence in growth allowing for the possibility of several trend breaks. The results offer further evidence against strong hypotheses of convergence but demonstrate the existence of common trends among subsets of countries. Trend growth estimates for OECD countries have fallen since the early post‐war period when catch‐up was strong, but nevertheless are generally higher than before the Second World War. Taking these results together with evidence from historical research, it is argued that the recent growth slowdown should not be seen as sufficient reason to reject the hypothesis of endogenous growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence C. Mills & N. F. R. Crafts, 2000. "After the Golden Age: A Long‐Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded up, Slowed Down and Still Differ," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(1), pages 68-91, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:1:p:68-91
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00182
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    Cited by:

    1. Epstein, Philip & Howlett, Peter & Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2004. "Trade, convergence and globalisation: the dynamics of change in the international income distribution, 1950-1998," Economic History Working Papers 13295, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    2. Robert W. Fogel, 2008. "The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth: Geography, Institutions, and the Knowledge Economy, pages 311-354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Steven Cook & Alan Speight, 2006. "International Business Cycle Asymmetry and Time Irreversible Nonlinearities," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1051-1065.
    4. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
    5. Epstein, Philip & Howlett, Peter & Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2000. "Distribution dynamics: stratification, polarisation and convergence among OECD economies, 1870-1992," Economic History Working Papers 22380, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    6. Epstein, Philip & Howlett, Peter & Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2007. "Trade, convergence, and globalisation: The dynamics of the international income distribution, 1950-1998," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 100-113, January.
    7. David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683.
    8. Gianfranco Di Vaio & Kerstin Enflo, 2009. "Did globalisation lead to segmentation? Identifying cross-country growth regimes in the long-run, 1870-2003," Working Papers 9013, Economic History Society.
    9. Crafts, Nicholas & Toniolo, Gianni, 2008. "European Economic Growth, 1950-2005: An Overview," CEPR Discussion Papers 6863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Epstein, Philip & Howlett, Peter & Schulze, Max-Stephan, 2003. "Distribution dynamics: stratification, polarization, and convergence among OECD economies, 1870-1992," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 78-97, January.
    11. Ribeiro, M.J., 2000. "A Nonscale Growth Model with R&D and Human Capital Accumulation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 574, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    12. Landon-Lane, John S. & Robertson, Peter E., 2009. "Long-run growth in the OECD: A test of the parallel growth paths hypothesis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 346-355, July.
    13. Robert W. Fogel, 2005. "Reconsidering Expectations Of Economic Growth After," NBER Working Papers 11125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "Western Europe's Growth Prospects: an Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 8827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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