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Balancing water resources conservation and food security in China

Author

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  • Dalin, Carole
  • Qiu, Huanguang
  • Hanasaki, Naota
  • Mauzerall, Denise L.
  • Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

Abstract

China’s economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources, and rich foods will deepen the challenge of sustainably feeding the population and balancing agricultural and environmental policies. We combine a hydrologic model with an economic model to project China’s future food trade patterns and embedded water resources by 2030 and to analyze the effects of targeted irrigation reductions on this system, notably on national agricultural water consumption and food self-sufficiency. We simulate interprovincial and international food trade with a general equilibrium welfare model and a linear programming optimization, and we obtain province-level estimates of commodities’ virtual water content with a hydrologic model. We find that reducing irrigated land in regions highly dependent on scarce river flow and nonrenewable groundwater resources, such as Inner Mongolia and the greater Beijing area, can improve the efficiency of agriculture and trade regarding water resources. It can also avoid significant consumption of irrigation water across China (up to 14.8 km3/y, reduction by 14%), while incurring relatively small decreases in national food self-sufficiency (e.g., by 3% for wheat). Other researchers found that a national, rather than local, water policy would have similar effects on food production but would only reduce irrigation water consumption by 5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalin, Carole & Qiu, Huanguang & Hanasaki, Naota & Mauzerall, Denise L. & Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio, 2015. "Balancing water resources conservation and food security in China," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62725, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:62725
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rosegrant, Mark W., 1997. "Water resources in the twenty-first century: challenges and implications for action," 2020 vision discussion papers 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Zhang, Chao & Anadon, Laura Diaz, 2014. "A multi-regional input–output analysis of domestic virtual water trade and provincial water footprint in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 159-172.
    3. Michelle Gilmartin & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales & Karen Turner, 2009. "The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances," Working Papers 0903, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A. & Keyzer, M.A. & van Veen, W.C.M. & Qiu, H., 2021. "Can China's overuse of fertilizer be reduced without threatening food security and farm incomes?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Huang, Jing & Ridoutt, Bradley G. & Thorp, Kelly R. & Wang, Xuechun & Lan, Kang & Liao, Jun & Tao, Xu & Wu, Caiyan & Huang, Jianliang & Chen, Fu & Scherer, Laura, 2019. "Water-scarcity footprints and water productivities indicate unsustainable wheat production in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Shi, Shanheng & Zhou, Shiwei & Lei, Yongdeng & Harrison, Matthew Tom & Liu, Ke & Chen, Fu & Yin, Xiaogang, 2024. "Burgeoning food demand outpaces sustainable water supply in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    4. Liu, Jianliang & Huang, Xinya & Jiang, Haibo & Chen, Huai, 2021. "Sustaining yield and mitigating methane emissions from rice production with plastic film mulching technique," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    5. Cao, Xinchun & Cui, Simeng & Shu, Rui & Wu, Mengyang, 2020. "Misestimation of water saving in agricultural virtual water trade by not considering the role of irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. Liu, Yansui & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Reflections on China's food security and land use policy under rapid urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Guo, Hui & Wang, Xuhui & Wang, Yahui & Li, Sien, 2024. "Effect of mulched drip irrigation on crop biomass and carbon fluxes in maize field," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    8. Gao, Xiaoyu & Huo, Zailin & Xu, Xu & Qu, Zhongyi & Huang, Guanhua & Tang, Pengcheng & Bai, Yining, 2018. "Shallow groundwater plays an important role in enhancing irrigation water productivity in an arid area: The perspective from a regional agricultural hydrology simulation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 43-58.
    9. Ling Luo & Dehua Mao & Zongming Wang & Baojia Du & Hengqi Yan & Bai Zhang, 2018. "Remote Sensing and GIS Support to Identify Potential Areas for Wetland Restoration from Cropland: A Case Study in the West Songnen Plain, Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, July.
    10. Wang, Xingwang & Lei, Huimin & Li, Jiadi & Huo, Zailin & Zhang, Yongqiang & Qu, Yanping, 2023. "Estimating evapotranspiration and yield of wheat and maize croplands through a remote sensing-based model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    11. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Pereira, Luis S. & Bybordi, Mohammad, 2023. "Water management dilemma in the agricultural sector of Iran: A review focusing on water governance," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    12. Sun, Han & Hu, Xueyuan & Yang, Xiaohui & Wang, Hai & Cheng, Jinhua, 2023. "Estimating water pollution and economic cost embodied in the mining industry: An interprovincial analysis in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    13. Zhou, Qing & Zhang, Yali & Wu, Feng, 2021. "Evaluation of the most proper management scale on water use efficiency and water productivity: A case study of the Heihe River Basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    virtual water; food trade; trade policy; sustainable agriculture; water saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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