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The disorder problem for compound Poisson processes with exponential jumps

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  • Gapeev, Pavel V.

Abstract

The problem of disorder seeks to determine a stopping time which is as close as possible to the unknown time of “disorder” when the observed process changes its probability characteristics. We give a partial answer to this question for some special cases of Lévy processes and present a complete solution of the Bayesian and variational problem for a compound Poisson process with exponential jumps. The method of proof is based on reducing the Bayesian problem to an integro-differential free-boundary problem where, in some cases, the smooth-fit principle breaks down and is replaced by the principle of continuous fit.

Suggested Citation

  • Gapeev, Pavel V., 2005. "The disorder problem for compound Poisson processes with exponential jumps," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3219, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:3219
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/3219/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ernesto Mordecki, 1999. "Optimal stopping for a diffusion with jumps," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 227-236.
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    Cited by:

    1. Krawiec, Michał & Palmowski, Zbigniew & Płociniczak, Łukasz, 2018. "Quickest drift change detection in Lévy-type force of mortality model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 338(C), pages 432-450.
    2. Bruno Buonaguidi, 2023. "Finite Horizon Sequential Detection with Exponential Penalty for the Delay," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 198(1), pages 224-238, July.
    3. Gapeev, Pavel V., 2006. "Integral options in models with jumps," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-068, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Asaf Cohen, 2015. "Parameter Estimation: The Proper Way to Use Bayesian Posterior Processes with Brownian Noise," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(2), pages 361-389, February.
    5. Savas Dayanik & Semih Onur Sezer, 2006. "Compound Poisson Disorder Problem," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 649-672, November.
    6. Asaf Cohen & Eilon Solan, 2013. "Bandit Problems with Lévy Processes," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 92-107, February.
    7. Gapeev, Pavel V. & Stoev, Yavor I., 2017. "On the Laplace transforms of the first exit times in one-dimensional non-affine jump–diffusion models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 152-162.
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-068 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Poor, 2008. "Optimal time to change premiums," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 68(1), pages 125-158, August.
    10. Gapeev, Pavel V., 2006. "Multiple disorder problems for Wiener and compound Poisson processes with exponential jumps," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-074, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    11. Gapeev, Pavel V. & Jeanblanc, Monique, 2024. "On the construction of conditional probability densities in the Brownian and compound Poisson filtrations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121059, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Savas Dayanik & Semih O Sezer, 2023. "Model Misspecification in Discrete Time Bayesian Online Change Detection," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, March.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-074 is not listed on IDEAS

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