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Technological advances and the decision to invest

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  • Christian Flor
  • Simon Hansen

Abstract

Technological advances impact a firm’s investment decision, as they affect the investment cost. They can also affect the profitability due to demand shocks. We study a firm’s optimal investment decision when technological advances occur as surprises and induce uncertain reductions in the investment cost and in earnings. Despite this complex setting we derive closed-form solutions for the investment option value and the investment threshold. When technological advances only impact the investment cost, we demonstrate significant contributions compared to existing research, which restricts the analysis by keeping the expected investment cost path constant. For example, we show that, albeit the investment threshold is constant, the option value is very sensitive in the expected impact of technological advances. Leaving the restrictive setting, we obtain more intuitive results, e.g. that more frequent technological advances increase the option value. When technological advances impact future earnings we find important long-term effects: the investment threshold increases, whereas the option value decreases. Finally, earnings volatility postpones investment, while uncertainty due to technological advances expedites investment. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Flor & Simon Hansen, 2013. "Technological advances and the decision to invest," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 383-420, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:9:y:2013:i:3:p:383-420
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-012-0191-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Armerin, Fredrik, 2023. "Investments with declining cost following a Lévy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1052-1062.
    2. Shahbaz Sheikh, 2017. "Threat of termination and firm innovation," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 75-95, February.
    3. Nunes, Cláudia & Oliveira, Carlos & Pimentel, Rita, 2021. "Quasi-analytical solution of an investment problem with decreasing investment cost due to technological innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Laura Delaney & Polina Kovaleva, 2017. "The dampening effect of iceberg orders on small traders’ welfare," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 453-484, November.
    5. Hwa-Sung Kim, 2023. "Effects of ambiguity on innovation strategies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal investment; Price uncertainty; Cost uncertainty; Real options; Shocks; G31; D81;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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