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Forecasting non-stationary time series by wavelet process modelling

Author

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  • Fryzlewicz, Piotr
  • van Bellegem, Sébastien
  • von Sachs, Rainer

Abstract

Many time series in the applied sciences display a time-varying second order structure. In this article, we address the problem of how to forecast these nonstationary time series by means of non-decimated wavelets. Using the class of Locally Stationary Wavelet processes, we introduce a new predictor based on wavelets and derive the prediction equations as a generalisation of the Yule-Walker equations. We propose an automatic computational procedure for choosing the parameters of the forecasting algorithm. Finally, we apply the prediction algorithm to a meteorological time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Fryzlewicz, Piotr & van Bellegem, Sébastien & von Sachs, Rainer, 2003. "Forecasting non-stationary time series by wavelet process modelling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25830, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:25830
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/25830/
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. I A Eckley & G P Nason, 2018. "A test for the absence of aliasing or local white noise in locally stationary wavelet time series," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(4), pages 833-848.
    2. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    3. Guy Nason & Kara Stevens, 2015. "Bayesian Wavelet Shrinkage of the Haar-Fisz Transformed Wavelet Periodogram," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Guy Nason, 2013. "A test for second-order stationarity and approximate confidence intervals for localized autocovariances for locally stationary time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(5), pages 879-904, November.
    5. Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Nason, Guy P., 2004. "Smoothing the wavelet periodogram using the Haar-Fisz transform," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Joanna Bruzda, 2020. "The wavelet scaling approach to forecasting: Verification on a large set of Noisy data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 353-367, April.
    7. Antonis A. Michis & Guy P. Nason, 2017. "Case study: shipping trend estimation and prediction via multiscale variance stabilisation," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(15), pages 2672-2684, November.
    8. Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Ombao, Hernando, 2009. "Consistent classification of non-stationary time series using stochastic wavelet representations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25162, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2015. "Multiple-change-point detection for high dimensional time series via sparsified binary segmentation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Marios Sergides & Efstathios Paparoditis, 2009. "Frequency Domain Tests of Semiparametric Hypotheses for Locally Stationary Processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(4), pages 800-821, December.
    11. Honglu Zhu & Xu Li & Qiao Sun & Ling Nie & Jianxi Yao & Gang Zhao, 2015. "A Power Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Wavelet Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Holger Dette & Weichi Wu, 2020. "Prediction in locally stationary time series," Papers 2001.00419, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    13. Tata Subba Rao & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson & Alessandro Cardinali & Guy P. Nason, 2017. "Locally Stationary Wavelet Packet Processes: Basis Selection and Model Fitting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 151-174, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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