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European versus US unemployment: different responses to increased demand for skill?

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  • Jackman, Richard
  • Layard, Richard
  • Manacorda, Marco
  • Petrongolo, Barbara

Abstract

According to Paul Krugman, “the European unemployment problem and the US inequality problem are two sides of the same coin”. In other words, both continents have had the same shift in demand towards skill; in the US relative wages have adjusted and in Europe not. The implication of this hypothesis is that in Europe the unemployment rate for the unskilled will have risen but the unemployment rate for the skilled will have fallen. In fact it has risen. To investigate the hypothesis more systematically we develop an internally consistent model which allocates the change in a country’s unemployment between that resulting from (a) shifts in relative demand for skill minus shifts in relative supply, (b) shifts in the relative intercepts of skilled and unskilled wage functions, (c) shifts in aggregate wage pressure. We show that the rise in British unemployment relative to the US since the 1970s is almost certainly due to shifts in aggregate wage pressure. Similarly for 5 other European countries the combination of (a) and (b) accounts for none of the increase in unemployment since the 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard & Manacorda, Marco & Petrongolo, Barbara, 1997. "European versus US unemployment: different responses to increased demand for skill?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2174, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:2174
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    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, April.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
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    6. Nickell, Stephen & Bell, Brian, 1995. "The Collapse in Demand for the Unskilled and Unemployment across the OECD," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 40-62, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Strand, Jon, 2000. "Wage bargaining and turnover costs with heterogeneous labor and asymmetric information1," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 95-116, January.
    2. Alena Bicakova, 2006. "Market vs. Institutions: The Trade-off Between Unemployment and Wage Inequality Revisited," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/31, European University Institute.
    3. Steve Nickell & Jan van Ours, 2000. "The Netherlands and the United Kingdom: a European unemployment miracle?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 136-180.
    4. Alena Bic kov, 2005. "Unemployment Versus Inactivity: An Analysis of the Earnings and Labor Force Status of Prime Age Men in France, the UK, and the US at the End of the 20th Century," LIS Working papers 412, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    5. Jens Rubart, 2006. "Dismissal Protection or Wage Flexibility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 406, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Floro Ernesto Caroleo, 2000. "Le politiche per l'occupazione in Europa: una tassonomia istituzionale," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2000(71).
    7. Andrew Brigden & Jonathan Thomas, 2003. "What does economic theory tell us about labour market tightness?," Bank of England working papers 185, Bank of England.
    8. Knut Røed & Steinar Strøm, 2002. "Progressive Taxes and the Labour Market: Is the Trade–off Between Equality and Efficiency Inevitable?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 77-110, February.
    9. Roed, Knut, 2005. "Egalitarian wage policies, unemployment and skill-biased technological change," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(4), pages 375-387, December.
    10. James Vickery, 1999. "Unemployment and Skills in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Carsten Ochsen, 2006. "Zukunft der Arbeit und Arbeit der Zukunft in Deutschland," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(2), pages 173-193, May.
    12. Roed,K., 1999. "Relative unemployment rates and skill-biased technological change," Memorandum 38/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    13. Christopher Gerry & Tomasz Mickiewicz, 2006. "Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp831, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. Pablo Burriel-Llombart & Jonathan Thomas, 2001. "Skill imbalances in the UK labour market: 1979-99," Bank of England working papers 145, Bank of England.
    15. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pc:p:3029-3084 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jeff Borland, 2000. "Disaggregated Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    17. Knut Røed & Morten Nordberg, 2004. "Have the relative employment prospects for the low-skilled deteriorated after all?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 67-82, February.
    18. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang, 1997. "Flexibilität der qualifikatorischen Lohnstruktur und Lastverteilung der Arbeitslosigkeit: Eine ökonometrische Analyse für Westdeutschland," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-32, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Richard Jackman, 1998. "European Unemployment: Why is it so High and What Should be Done About it?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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