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Efficiency improvements in inference on stationary and nonstationary fractional time series

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  • Robinson, Peter

Abstract

We consider a time series model involving a fractional stochastic component, whose integration order can lie in the stationary/invertible or nonstationary regions and be unknown, and additive deterministic component consisting of a generalised polynomial. The model can thus incorporate competing descriptions of trending behaviour. The stationary input to the stochastic component has parametric autocorrelation, but innovation with distribution of unknown form. The model is thus semiparametric, and we develop estimates of the parametric component which are asymptotically normal and achieve an M-estimation efficiency bound, equal to that found in work using an adaptive LAM/LAN approach. A major technical feature which we treat is the effect of truncating the autoregressive representation in order to form innovation proxies. This is relevant also when the innovation density is parameterised, and we provide a result for that case also. Our semiparametric estimates employ nonparametric series estimation, which avoids some complications and conditions in kernel approaches featured in much work on adaptive estimation of time series models; our work thus also contributes to methods and theory for nonfractional time series models, such as autoregressive moving averages. A Monte Carlo study of finite sample performance of the semiparametric estimates is included.

Suggested Citation

  • Robinson, Peter, 2004. "Efficiency improvements in inference on stationary and nonstationary fractional time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2126, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:2126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudolf Beran, 1976. "Adaptive estimates for autoregressive processes," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 28(1), pages 77-89, December.
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    5. Marc Hallin & Masanobu Taniguchi & Abdeslam Serroukh & Kokyo Choy, 1999. "Local asymptotic normality for regression models with long-memory disturbance, with statistical applications," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2091, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Ling S., 2003. "Adaptive Estimators and Tests of Stationary and Nonstationary Short- and Long-Memory ARFIMA-GARCH Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 955-967, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fractional processes; efficient semiparametric estimation; adaptive estimation; nonstationary processes; series estimation; M-estimation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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