Understanding recent patterns in intergenerational social mobility: differences by gender, ethnicity, education, and their intersections

This paper presents new estimates of recent social mobility in the UK by gender, education and ethnicity, and their intersections. We measure absolute social class mobility using data from the Labour Force Survey 2014-2018. Overall, little change in social mobility occurred over this short period but sub-group analysis using a pooled sample reveals some important new findings. Education is associated with greater chances for upward mobility and lower risk of downward mobility, particularly for men. There are also stark ethnic differences in social mobility prospects in the UK. Opportunities for upward absolute social mobility appear to be more limited for some ethnic groups; particularly Black African men and women, and Black Caribbean men, even after accounting for origin class and disadvantage associated with first generation immigrant status. By contrast, Indian men and women enjoy higher rates of upward social mobility. Risks of downward absolute social mobility are also higher for Black African men and women, and Black Caribbean men, as well as Pakistani/Bangladeshi men and women, even after accounting for origin class and first generation status. But similarities in patterns among those from Black African and Black Caribbean origins mask different initial conditions: much of the reason for the experience of Black African men and women comes down to higher social class origins and a large proportion of first-generation immigrants, whereas for Black Caribbean men, they have low (high) rates of upward (downward) mobility despite lower social class origins and being more settled in terms of immigration status.