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Putting the price in asset pricing

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  • Cho, Thummim
  • Polk, Christopher

Abstract

We propose a novel way to estimate a portfolio's abnormal price, the percentage gap between price and the present value of dividends computed with a chosen asset pricing model. Our method, based on a novel identity, resembles the time-series estimator of abnormal returns, avoids the issues in alternative approaches, and clarifies the role of risk and mispricing in long-horizon returns. We apply our techniques to study the cross-section of price levels relative to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and find that a single characteristic, adjusted value, provides a parsimonious model of CAPM-implied abnormal price.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Thummim & Polk, Christopher, 2024. "Putting the price in asset pricing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120805, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:120805
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/120805/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    2. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018. "An intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 207-233.
    3. Andrey Golubov & Theodosia Konstantinidi, 2019. "Where Is the Risk in Value? Evidence from a Market‐to‐Book Decomposition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 3135-3186, December.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
    6. David, Joel M. & Schmid, Lukas & Zeke, David, 2022. "Risk-adjusted capital allocation and misallocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 684-705.
    7. Frederico Belo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2013. "A Supply Approach to Valuation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(12), pages 3029-3067.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price level; mispricing metric; novel identity; stochastic discount factor; CAPM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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