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Lending cycles and real outcomes: costs of political misalignment

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  • Bircan, Çağatay
  • Saka, Orkun

Abstract

We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province based on electoral competition and political alignment of incumbent mayors. This effect only exists in corporate lending and creates credit constraints for firms in opposition areas, which suffer drops in assets, employment and sales but not firm entry. Financial resources and factors of production are misallocated as more efficient provinces and industries suffer the greatest constraints, reducing aggregate productivity.

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  • Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2021. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: costs of political misalignment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115214, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:115214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Lisa Ahsen Sezer & Gül Berna Özcan, 2024. "Local champions and change of governments: a longitudinal analysis of firms’ political ties in Gaziantep, Turkey," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 263-283.
    4. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Kerola, Eeva & Weill, Laurent, 2024. "European banks are not immune to national elections," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Thomas Lambert & Wolf Wagner & Eden Quxian Zhang, 2023. "Banks, Political Capital, and Growth," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 613-655.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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