IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/108923.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current and future flood risk of new build homes across different socio-economic neighbourhoods in England and Wales

Author

Listed:
  • Rözer, Viktor
  • Surminski, Swenja

Abstract

Despite improvements in the management of flood risk and the introduction of new regulations, losses from flooding remain high. An important driver is the continuation of new assets being built in flood prone locations. Over the last decade over 120,000 new homes in England and Wales have been built in flood prone areas. While the yearly rates of new homes in flood risk areas have increased only moderately on the national level, significant differences between and within regions as well as between different flood types exist. Using property level data on new homes built over the last decade and information on the socio-economic development of neighbourhoods, we analyse spatial clusters of disproportional increase in flood exposure from recently built homes and investigate how these patterns evolve under different future climate scenarios. We find that a disproportionately higher number of homes built in struggling or declining neighbourhoods between 2008 and 2018 is expected to end up in areas at a high risk of flooding over their lifetime as a result of climate change. Based on these findings, we discuss issues regarding future spending on flood defences, affordability of private level flood protection and insurance as well as the role of spatial planning for adaptation in the face of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Rözer, Viktor & Surminski, Swenja, 2021. "Current and future flood risk of new build homes across different socio-economic neighbourhoods in England and Wales," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108923, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:108923
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/108923/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Young & Stephen Essex, 2020. "Climate change adaptation in the planning of England’s coastal urban areas: priorities, barriers and future prospects," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 63(5), pages 912-934, April.
    2. Samuel Hayes & Adam Barker & Carys Jones, 2014. "Flood Management Consideration In Sustainability Appraisal And Strategic Environmental Assessment In England And Scotland," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(03), pages 1-23.
    3. Hessel C. Winsemius & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Ludovicus P. H. van Beek & Marc F. P. Bierkens & Arno Bouwman & Brenden Jongman & Jaap C. J. Kwadijk & Willem Ligtvoet & Paul L. Lucas & Detlef P. van Vuu, 2016. "Global drivers of future river flood risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 381-385, April.
    4. Michael Buser, 2020. "Coastal Adaptation Planning in Fairbourne, Wales: lessons for Climate Change Adaptation," Planning Practice & Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 127-147, March.
    5. Adriana Keating & Karen Campbell & Reinhard Mechler & Piotr Magnuszewski & Junko Mochizuki & Wei Liu & Michael Szoenyi & Colin McQuistan, 2017. "Disaster resilience: what it is and how it can engender a meaningful change in development policy," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35(1), pages 65-91, January.
    6. Okmyung Bin & Jamie Brown Kruse & Craig E. Landry, 2008. "Flood Hazards, Insurance Rates, and Amenities: Evidence From the Coastal Housing Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 63-82, March.
    7. James Porter & David Demeritt, 2012. "Flood-Risk Management, Mapping, and Planning: The Institutional Politics of Decision Support in England," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 44(10), pages 2359-2378, October.
    8. Ross Gillard, 2016. "Questioning the Diffusion of Resilience Discourses in Pursuit of Transformational Change," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 13-20, February.
    9. Lindsey Jones & Mark A. Constas & Nathanial Matthews & Simone Verkaart, 2021. "Advancing resilience measurement," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 288-289, April.
    10. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert J R, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalised Into Property Values?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 668-685.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin & Lee, Jonathan, 2022. "The Effects of Subsidized Flood Insurance on Real Estate Markets," Bank of England working papers 995, Bank of England.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allan Beltrán & David Maddison & Robert J. R. Elliott, 2018. "Assessing the Economic Benefits of Flood Defenses: A Repeat‐Sales Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2340-2367, November.
    2. Mutlu, Asli & Roy, Debraj & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Nazmul Huq & Alexander Stubbings, 2015. "How is the Role of Ecosystem Services Considered in Local Level Flood Management Policies: Case Study in Cumbria, England," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(04), pages 1-29, December.
    4. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin, 2021. "High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Netusil, Noelwah R. & Moeltner, Klaus & Jarrad, Maya, 2019. "Floodplain designation and property sale prices in an urban watershed," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    7. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-86.
    8. Chiang Hsieh, Lin-Han, 2021. "Is it the flood, or the disclosure? An inquiry to the impact of flood risk on residential housing prices," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    10. Paolo Avner & Vincent Viguié & Bramka Arga Jafino & Stephane Hallegatte, 2022. "Flood Protection and Land Value Creation – Not all Resilience Investments Are Created Equal," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 417-449, November.
    11. Serge Garcia & Katrin Erdlenbruch & Boniface Derrick Mbarga, 2024. "A discrete choice experiment to measure the impact of flood risk information on residential location choices [Une expérience de choix discrets pour mesurer l'impact de l'information sur les risques," Working Papers hal-04594157, HAL.
    12. Quyen Nguyen & Paul Thorsnes & Ivan Diaz‐Rainey & Antoni Moore & Simon Cox & Leon Stirk‐Wang, 2022. "Price recovery after the flood: risk to residential property values from climate change‐related flooding," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(3), pages 532-560, July.
    13. Bakkensen, Laura A. & Ma, Lala, 2020. "Sorting over flood risk and implications for policy reform," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    14. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin & Lee, Jonathan, 2022. "The Effects of Subsidized Flood Insurance on Real Estate Markets," Bank of England working papers 995, Bank of England.
    15. Tom Gillespie & Ronan C. Lyons & Thomas K. J. McDermott, 2020. "Information Matters: Evidence from flood risk in the Irish housing market," Trinity Economics Papers tep1620, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    16. Bello Musa Zango & Sanni Mohammed Lekan & Mohammed Jibrin Katun, 2020. "Conventional Methods in Housing Market Analysis: A Review of Literature," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 227-241, January.
    17. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    18. Abdulwaheed Tella & Abdul-Lateef Balogun, 2020. "Ensemble fuzzy MCDM for spatial assessment of flood susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2277-2306, December.
    19. Céline Grislain-Letrémy & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2019. "Natural disasters, land-use, and insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 54-86, March.
    20. Agustín Indaco & Francesc Ortega & Süleyman Taṣpınar, 2021. "Hurricanes, flood risk and the economic adaptation of businesses," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 557-591.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    flood resilience; exposure; spatial planning; climate change; ES/R009708/1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:108923. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.