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The surprising recovery of currency usage

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  • Ashworth, J.
  • Goodhart, C. A. E.

Abstract

Currency usage began a long trend decline in the decades after World War II. This was expected to continue, and even accelerate, owing to payment technology innovations. Surprisingly, however, such usage as a percentage of GDP stopped falling and has increased quite sharply in recent years in most countries, with Sweden the major outlier. We examine to what extent this may have been due to increasing interest elasticity, nearing the zero lower bound, and also to rising tax evasion, as indirect taxes rise. We also show how currency holdings increased temporarily as the financial crisis struck in 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashworth, J. & Goodhart, C. A. E., 2020. "The surprising recovery of currency usage," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105303, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:105303
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/105303/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    2. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2015. "Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Working Papers 2015/224, International Monetary Fund.
    3. J Ashworth, 2013. "quantitative easing by the major western central banks during the global financial crisis," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Gene Amromin & Sujit Chakravorti, 2009. "Whither Loose Change? The Diminishing Demand for Small‐Denomination Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 315-335, March.
    5. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franz Seitz & Lucas Devigne & Raymond de Pastor, 2022. "Different Motives for Holding Cash in France: an Analysis of the Net Cash Issues of the Banque de France," Working papers 888, Banque de France.
    2. Edoardo Rainone, 2022. "Currency demand at negative policy rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1359, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2024. "Uncertainty, politics, and crises: The case for cash," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(3).
    4. Muñoz, Manuel A. & Soons, Oscar, 2023. "Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC," Working Paper Series 2801, European Central Bank.
    5. Jacek Pietrucha & Grzegorz Maciejewski, 2020. "Precautionary Demand for Cash and Perceived Risk of Electronic Payments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Alfar, Abdelrahman J.K. & Kumpamool, Chamaiporn & Nguyen, Dung T.K. & Ahmed, Rizwan, 2023. "The determinants of issuing central bank digital currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Zbigniew Polański & Mikołaj Szadkowski, 2021. "An accounting-based model of seigniorage, and recent monetary developments," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(5), pages 391-436.
    8. Jeremy Srouji, 2020. "Digital Payments, the Cashless Economy, and Financial Inclusion in the United Arab Emirates: Why Is Everyone Still Transacting in Cash?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-10, October.
    9. Jeremy Samer Srouji, 2020. "Digital Payments, the Cashless Economy, and Financial Inclusion in the United Arab Emirates: Why Is Everyone Still Transacting in Cash?," Post-Print hal-03015357, HAL.
    10. Yulia Titova & Delia Cornea & Sébastien Lemeunier, 2021. "What Factors Keep Cash Alive in the European Union?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 291-317, August.
    11. Serhan Cevik, 2020. "Dirty money: Does the risk of infectious disease lower demand for cash?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 460-471, December.
    12. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2024. "Resilience and the cash infrastructure: The role of access, acceptance, availability, and affordability," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 93, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    13. Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider & Franz Seitz, 2020. "Payment Innovations, the Shadow Economy and Cash Demand of Households in Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8574, CESifo.
    14. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2022. "On the stabilizing role of cash for societies," IMFS Working Paper Series 167, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    15. Kotkowski, Radoslaw, 2023. "National culture and the demand for physical money during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Hanna Armelius & Carl Andreas Claussen & André Reslow, 2022. "Withering Cash: Is Sweden Ahead of the Curve or Just Special?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    17. Noll, Franklin & Lipkin, Andrei, 2021. "Smart Banknotes and Cryptobanknotes: Hybrid Banknotes for Central Bank Digital Currencies and Cryptocurrency Payments," MPRA Paper 110887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Claussen, Carl Andreas & Segendorff, Björn & Seitz, Franz, 2023. "Cash for Transactions or Store-of-Value? A comparative study on Sweden and peer countries," Working Paper Series 427, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    19. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2021. "Cash and crises: No surprises by the virus," IMFS Working Paper Series 150, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    20. Solomon H. Tarlin, 2021. "The Future of Cash," Community Affairs Discussion Paper 21-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    21. Batiz-Lazo, Bernardo & Bautista-González, Manuel A & González-Correa, Ignacio, 2021. "La transformación en el uso de efectivo y pagos digitales durante la pandemia de Covid-19 [Thye transformation in the use of cash and digital payments during the Covid-19 pandemioc]," MPRA Paper 109943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Jacek Pietrucha, 2021. "Drivers of the Cash Paradox," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency; interest elasticity; financial crisis; Grey economy; tax evasion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E49 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Other
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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