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Nuclear power learning and deployment rates: disruption and global benefits forgone

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  • Peter A. Lang

Abstract

This paper presents evidence of the disruption of a transition from fossil fuels to nuclear power, and finds the benefits forgone as a consequence are substantial. Learning rates are presented for nuclear power in seven countries, comprising 58% of all power reactors ever built globally. Learning rates and deployment rates changed in the late- 1960s and 1970s from rapidly falling costs and accelerating deployment to rapidly rising costs and stalled deployment. Historical nuclear global capacity, electricity generation and overnight construction costs are compared with the counterfactual that predisruption learning and deployment rates had continued to 2015. Had the early rates continued, nuclear power could now be around 10% of its current cost. The additional nuclear power could have substituted for 69,000–186,000 TWh of coal and gas generation, thereby avoiding up to 9.5 million deaths and 174 Gt CO2 emissions. In 2015 alone, nuclear power could have replaced up to 100% of coal-generated and 76% of gas-generated electricity, thereby avoiding up to 540,000 deaths and 11 Gt CO2. Rapid progress was achieved in the past and could be again, with appropriate policies. Research is needed to identify impediments to progress, and policy is needed to remove them.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A. Lang, 2017. "Nuclear power learning and deployment rates: disruption and global benefits forgone," CAMA Working Papers 2017-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-04
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-11/4_2017_lang_0.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Hossam A. Gabbar & Muhammad R. Abdussami & Md. Ibrahim Adham, 2020. "Micro Nuclear Reactors: Potential Replacements for Diesel Gensets within Micro Energy Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-38, October.
    2. William Bodel & Kevin Hesketh & Grace McGlynn & Juan Matthews & Gregg Butler, 2021. "Generic Feasibility Assessment: Helping to Choose the Nuclear Piece of the Net Zero Jigsaw," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Bi-Huei Tsai & Yao-Min Huang, 2023. "Comparing the Substitution of Nuclear Energy or Renewable Energy for Fossil Fuels between the United States and Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Choi, Donghyun & Kim, Yeong Jae, 2023. "Local and global experience curves for lumpy and granular energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Reinhard Haas & Marlene Sayer & Amela Ajanovic & Hans Auer, 2023. "Technological learning: Lessons learned on energy technologies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), March.
    6. Katarzyna Zawalińska & Jouko Kinnunen & Piotr Gradziuk & Dorota Celińska-Janowicz, 2020. "To Whom Should We Grant a Power Plant? Economic Effects of Investment in Nuclear Energy in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-26, May.
    7. Kim, Yeong Jae & Soh, Moonwon & Cho, Seong-Hoon, 2022. "Identifying optimal financial budget distributions for the low-carbon energy transition between emerging and developed countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nuclear power; Construction cost; Learning rate; Experience curve; Energy transition; Forgone benefits; Deaths; CO2 emissions;
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