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Combating China's export contraction: Fiscal expansion or accelerated industrial reform?

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  • Rod Tyers
  • Ling Huang

Abstract

Initially, the global financial crisis caused a surge of financial inflows to China, raising investment, but this abated in 2008, leaving a substantial contraction in export demand. The government’s key response was to commit to an unprecedented fiscal expansion. Two often ignored consequences are, first that government spending is on non-traded goods and services and so enlarges the consequent real appreciation and, second, that a more inward-looking economy causes firms to face less elastic demand and hence to increase oligopoly rents, further enlarging the real appreciation. Both are important for China because of the contribution of its real-exchange-rate sensitive, low-margin labour-intensive export sector to total employment. An economy-wide analysis is offered, using a model that takes explicit account of oligopoly behaviour. The results suggest that a conventional fiscal expansion would further contract the Chinese economy. On the other hand, notwithstanding the export contraction further industrial reform, emphasising the largely state-owned sectors, would reduce costs and foster growth in both output and modern sector employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Tyers & Ling Huang, 2009. "Combating China's export contraction: Fiscal expansion or accelerated industrial reform?," CAMA Working Papers 2009-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2009-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers, 2008. "Competition Policy, Corporate Saving and China's Current Account Surplus," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-496, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    2. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2012-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "China's Gender Imbalance and its Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Creina Day, 2011. "China's Fiscal Stimulus and the Recession Australia Never Had: Is a Growth Slowdown Now Inevitable?," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 23-34.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L43 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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