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The Economic Dependency of the Bitcoin Security

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  • Pavel Ciaian
  • d'Artis Kancs
  • Miroslava Rajcaniova

Abstract

We study to what extent the Bitcoin blockchain security permanently depends on the underlying distribution of cryptocurrency market outcomes. We use daily blockchain and Bitcoin data for 2014-2019 and employ the ARDL approach. We test three equilibrium hypotheses: (i) sensitivity of the Bitcoin blockchain to mining reward; (ii) security outcomes of the Bitcoin blockchain and the proof-of-work cost; and (iii) the speed of adjustment of the Bitcoin blockchain security to deviations from the equilibrium path. Our results suggest that the Bitcoin price and mining rewards are intrinsically linked to Bitcoin security outcomes. The Bitcoin blockchain security’s dependency on mining costs is geographically differenced – it is more significant for the global mining leader China than for other world regions. After input or output price shocks, the Bitcoin blockchain security reverts to its equilibrium security level.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "The Economic Dependency of the Bitcoin Security," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2021/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2021_01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2018. "The Price of BitCoin: GARCH Evidence from High Frequency Data," Papers 1812.09452, arXiv.org.
    2. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "Interdependencies between Mining Costs, Mining Rewards and Blockchain Security," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(1), pages 25-62, May.
    3. Ciaian, Pavel & Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Kancs, d'Artis, 2018. "Virtual relationships: Short- and long-run evidence from BitCoin and altcoin markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 173-195.
    4. Patrick Waelbroeck, 2018. "An Economic Analysis of Blockchains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6893, CESifo.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Delgado-Mohatar, Oscar & Felis-Rota, Marta & Fernández-Herraiz, Carlos, 2019. "The Bitcoin mining breakdown: Is mining still profitable?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    7. Stoian, Andreea & Iorgulescu, Filip, 2020. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: An ARDL Bounds Testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 406-416.
    8. Jona Derks & Jaap Gordijn & Arjen Siegmann, 2018. "From chaining blocks to breaking even: A study on the profitability of bitcoin mining from 2012 to 2016," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 28(3), pages 321-338, August.
    9. Lin William Cong & Zhiguo He, 2019. "Blockchain Disruption and Smart Contracts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1754-1797.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2021. "Interdependencies between Mining Costs, Mining Rewards and Blockchain Security," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 22(1), pages 25-62, May.
    2. Layla Hajr & Suzan Katamoura & Abdulrahman Mirza, 2023. "Bitcoin Cryptocurrency and Electronic Commerce in Saudi Arabia," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    3. José Parra-Moyano & Gregor Reich & Karl Schmedders, 2024. "A Note on the Non-proportionality of Winning Probabilities in Bitcoin," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1697-1714, September.
    4. Simona-Vasilica Oprea & Irina Alexandra Georgescu & Adela Bâra, 2024. "Is Bitcoin ready to be a widespread payment method? Using price volatility and setting strategies for merchants," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 1267-1305, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; blockchain; proof-of-work; ARDL; institutional governance technology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other

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