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Merger and Acquire of Series: A New Approach of Time Series Modeling

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  • Jitendra Kumar
  • Varun Agiwal

Abstract

Present paper proposes an autoregressive time series model to study the behaviour of merger and acquire concept which is equally important as other available theories like structural break, de- trending etc. The main motivation behind newly proposed merged autoregressive (M-AR) model is to study the impact of merger in the parameters as well as acquired series. First, we recommend the estimation setup using popular classical least square and posterior distribution under Bayesian method with different loss function. Then, we obtain Bayes factor, full Bayesian significance test and credible interval to know the significance of the merger series. A simulation as well as empirical study is illustrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jitendra Kumar & Varun Agiwal, 2018. "Merger and Acquire of Series: A New Approach of Time Series Modeling," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/16, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2018_16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K. S. Chan & H. Tong, 1986. "On Estimating Thresholds In Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 179-190, May.
    2. Rao-Nicholson, Rekha & Salaber, Julie & Cao, Tuan Hiep, 2016. "Long-term performance of mergers and acquisitions in ASEAN countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 373-387.
    3. Devra L. Golbe & Lawrence J. White, 1988. "A Time-Series Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions in the U.S. Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Takeovers: Causes and Consequences, pages 265-310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Berger, Allen N. & Demsetz, Rebecca S. & Strahan, Philip E., 1999. "The consolidation of the financial services industry: Causes, consequences, and implications for the future," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 135-194, February.
    5. Maditinos D. & Theriou N. & Demetriades E., 2009. "The Effect of Mergers and Acquisitions on the Performance of Companies – The Greek Case of Ioniki-Laiki Bank and Pisteos Bank," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 111-130.
    6. Seung Hee Choi & Bang Nam Jeon, 2011. "The impact of the macroeconomic environment on merger activity: evidence from US time-series data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 233-249.
    7. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G. & Ruback, Richard S., 1992. "Does corporate performance improve after mergers?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 135-175, April.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregressive model; Break point; Merger series; Bayesian inference.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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