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The impact of the macroeconomic environment on merger activity: evidence from US time-series data

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  • Seung Hee Choi
  • Bang Nam Jeon

Abstract

This article investigates the dynamic impact of the macroeconomic environment on aggregate merger activity in the US economy obtained from firm-level data during the period from January 1980 to December 2004. Applying time-series econometric tools to US Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) data, we find: First, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the set of macroeconomic variables and four alternative measures of merger activity, implying that the macroeconomic factors plays an important role in determining the trend of aggregate merger activity in the US economy. Second, the most important macroeconomic variables in determining M&A volume include real income for the frequency-based measure of US merger activity, and stock market conditions and monetary policy for transaction value based measures of aggregate mergers. The ascending phase of business cycle provides the most favourable environment for more mergers for all four measures of merger activity. Our subsample period study provides evidence that 'corporate net cash flow' plays a significant role after 1998, which is consistent with the free-cash-flow hypothesis. Third, there are short run adjustment processes to the long-run equilibrium path in US merger activity. The main processes of impulse-response dynamics seem to finish within the 5-6 quarter period. We also discuss policy implications and directions for future extension.

Suggested Citation

  • Seung Hee Choi & Bang Nam Jeon, 2011. "The impact of the macroeconomic environment on merger activity: evidence from US time-series data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 233-249.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:21:y:2011:i:4:p:233-249
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.528365
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    3. Jitendra Kumar & Varun Agiwal, 2018. "Merger and Acquire of Series: A New Approach of Time Series Modeling," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/16, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Ülengin, Füsun & Önsel, Şule & Aktas, Emel & Kabak, Özgür & Özaydın, Özay, 2014. "A decision support methodology to enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish automotive industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 789-801.
    5. Röhrer, Fabio E.G. & Proano, Christian R. & Mateane, Lebogang, 2023. "The impact of macroeconomic activity and yield valuation on mergers and acquisitions in Europe," BERG Working Paper Series 185, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    6. Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Fischer, Johannes J., 2021. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242445, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Kumar, Deepak & Sengupta, Keya & Bhattacharya, Mousumi, 2023. "Macroeconomic influences on M&A deal outcomes: An analysis of domestic and cross-border M&As in developed and emerging economies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

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