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Progressive taxation and (in)stability in an exogenous growth model with an informal sector

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  • Aleksandar Vasilev

Abstract

We show that in an exogenous growth model with informal economy calibrated to Bulgarian data under the progressive taxation regime (1993-2007), the economy exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy due to the presence of an unofficial production. These results are in line with the findings in Benhabib and Farmer (1994, 1996) and Farmer (1999). Also, the findings in this paper are in contrast to Guo and Lansing (1988) who argue that progressive taxation works as an automatic stabilizer. Un- der the flat tax regime (2008-14), the economy calibrated to Bulgarian data displays saddle-path stability. The decrease in the average effective tax rate addresses the indeterminacy issue and eliminates the ”sink” dynamics.

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  • Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017. "Progressive taxation and (in)stability in an exogenous growth model with an informal sector," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2017/07, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2017_07
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    1. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2015. "Welfare gains from the adoption of proportional taxation in a general-equilibrium model with a grey economy: the case of Bulgaria’s 2008 flat tax reform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 169-185, May.
    2. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    3. Juan Carlos Conesa Roca & Carlos Díaz Moreno & José Enrique Galdón Sánchez, 2001. "Underground economy and aggregate fluctuations," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 41-53.
    4. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    5. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E. A., 1996. "Indeterminacy and sector-specific externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 421-443, June.
    6. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 126-150, October.
    7. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2015. "The welfare effect of flat income tax reform: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 205-220.
    8. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    9. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2016. "Progressive taxation and (in)stability in an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 59(2), pages 1-15.
    10. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2022. "Is Military Spending Quantitatively Important for Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 28-51.
    2. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2021. "Progressive taxation and (in)stability in an exogenous growth model with non-market ("home") production," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 64(1), pages 23-37.
    3. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "Does the form of the Aggregate Production Function Matter for Modelling Business Cycle Fluctuations? Lessons for Bulgaria (1999-2018)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18, pages 81-86.
    4. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2022. "A Progressive Consumption Tax: An Important Instrument for Stabilizing Business Cycles, or Just an Exotic Idea?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 63(10-12), pages 576-588.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Progressive taxation; Informal Sector; Equilibrium (In)determinacy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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