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Indeterminacy and Multiplicity of Equilibria in a Two-sector Economy with a Public-sector Production

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  • Aleksandar Vasilev

Abstract

We introduce government production of both output-augmenting and utility-enhancing public services into an exogenous growth model with a detailed government sector, and calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We show that in contrast to the case without government output, e.g., Vasilev (2009), when the economy features saddle-path stability, the presence of a second sector leads to equilibrium indeterminacy in the model. When public sector production adds to private sector output, the setup exhibits "sink" dynamics, and equilibrium paths are determined by "animal spirits." These results are in line with the findings in the literature, e.g., Benhabib and Farmer (1994, 1996) and Farmer (1999), and have major implications for policy-making and welfare.

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  • Aleksandar Vasilev, 2020. "Indeterminacy and Multiplicity of Equilibria in a Two-sector Economy with a Public-sector Production," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 63(1), pages 18-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:journl:v:63:y:2020:i:1:p:18-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2015. "Welfare gains from the adoption of proportional taxation in a general-equilibrium model with a grey economy: the case of Bulgaria’s 2008 flat tax reform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 169-185, May.
    2. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E. A., 1996. "Indeterminacy and sector-specific externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 421-443, June.
    4. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 126-150, October.
    5. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017. "Insurance-markets Equilibrium with Sequential Non-convex Private- and Public-Sector Labor Supply," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 19-34.
    6. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    7. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2015. "The welfare effect of flat income tax reform: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 205-220.
    8. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2015. "Insurance-Markets Equilibrium with Double Indivisible Labor Supply," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 091-103, December.
    9. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2009. "Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 148-170.
    10. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2016. "Aggregation with a double non-convex labor supply decision: indivisible private- and public-sector hours," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 47.
    11. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2016. "Progressive taxation and (in)stability in an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 59(2), pages 1-15.
    12. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, December.
    13. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2016. "Progressive taxation and (in)stability in an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Preprints 144212, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium indeterminacy; animal spirits; two-sector model; government production.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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