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Forced migration and food crises

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Carril-Caccia

    (University of Granada)

  • Jordi Paniagua

    (University of Valencia. Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame.)

  • Marta Suarez-Varela

    (Bank of Spain)

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of food crises on forced international migration (FIM) flows using a structural gravity model, testing the influence of liquidity constraints in the context of heterogeneous migration costs and economic resources of potential migrants. We construct a dataset that captures the severity, persistence, and causes of food crises. Our results suggest that food crises increase FIM. While mild food crises skew international migrants towards developed and non-neighbouring countries, more severe events divert them to closer destinations. The results indicate that food crises tighten liquidity constraints on migration, and this worsens as they intensify. Under more severe food crises, migrants may be unable to afford the higher costs of migrating internationally, particularly to a developed nation, thus choosing a closer destination or migrating internally.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Marta Suarez-Varela, 2025. "Forced migration and food crises," Working Papers 2505, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2505
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    File URL: http://repecsrv.uv.es/paper/RePEc/pdf/eec_2505.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2505
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forced migration; Food crisis; Food insecurity; liquidity constraints; heterogeneous migration costs; Gravity equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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