IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eec/wpaper/2505.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forced migration and food crises

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Carril-Caccia

    (University of Granada)

  • Jordi Paniagua

    (University of Valencia. Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame.)

  • Marta Suarez-Varela

    (Bank of Spain)

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of food crises on forced international migration (FIM) flows using a structural gravity model, testing the influence of liquidity constraints in the context of heterogeneous migration costs and economic resources of potential migrants. We construct a dataset that captures the severity, persistence, and causes of food crises. Our results suggest that food crises increase FIM. While mild food crises skew international migrants towards developed and non-neighbouring countries, more severe events divert them to closer destinations. The results indicate that food crises tighten liquidity constraints on migration, and this worsens as they intensify. Under more severe food crises, migrants may be unable to afford the higher costs of migrating internationally, particularly to a developed nation, thus choosing a closer destination or migrating internally.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Marta Suarez-Varela, 2025. "Forced migration and food crises," Working Papers 2505, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repecsrv.uv.es/paper/RePEc/pdf/eec_2505.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2505
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    2. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Samuel Bazzi, 2017. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Income Elasticity of Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 219-255, April.
    5. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    6. Chernina, Eugenia & Castañeda Dower, Paul & Markevich, Andrei, 2014. "Property rights, land liquidity, and internal migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 191-215.
    7. Dustmann, Christian & Okatenko, Anna, 2014. "Out-migration, wealth constraints, and the quality of local amenities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 52-63.
    8. Federico Carril-Caccia & Aitor Garmendia-Lazcano & Asier Minondo, 2022. "The border effect on mergers and acquisitions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1267-1292, March.
    9. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    10. Simone Bertoli & J. Fernandes-Huertas Moraga, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Post-Print halshs-00820169, HAL.
    11. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    12. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Francisco Requena, 2021. "Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 146-158.
    13. Bailey, Michael & Gupta, Abhinav & Hillenbrand, Sebastian & Kuchler, Theresa & Richmond, Robert & Stroebel, Johannes, 2021. "International trade and social connectedness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Francisco Requena, 2021. "Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 146-158.
    15. Corbett, Jane, 1988. "Famine and household coping strategies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 1099-1112, September.
    16. Manuela Angelucci, 2015. "Migration and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 224-228, March.
    17. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2020. "Do Processing Times Affect the Distribution of Asylum Seekers across Europe?," IZA Discussion Papers 13018, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Cai, Shu, 2020. "Migration under liquidity constraints: Evidence from randomized credit access in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kevin N. Metuge & Betrand A. Tambe & Fabrice Tonfack Djikeng & Aduni Ufuan Achidi & Given Chipili & Xikombiso G. Mbhenyane, 2025. "Nutritional Vulnerability of Displaced Persons: A Study of Food Security and Access in Kumba Municipality, Cameroon," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Marta Suárez-Varela, 2022. "Forced migration and food crises," Working Papers 2227, Banco de España.
    2. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Francisco Requena, 2021. "Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 146-158.
    3. Jordi Paniagua & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo, 2021. "Asylum Migration in OECD Countries: In Search of Lost Well-Being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 1109-1137, February.
    4. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    6. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Francisco Requena, 2021. "Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 146-158.
    7. Federico Carril-Caccia & José María Martín Martín & Francisco Javier Sáez-Fernández, 2024. "How important are borders for tourism? The case of Europe," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 27-43, February.
    8. Marta Suárez-Varela, 2022. "The effect of food crises on international migration," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 3/2022.
    9. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    10. Bertoli, Simone & Moraga, Jesús Fernández-Huertas & Guichard, Lucas, 2020. "Rational inattention and migration decisions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Léa Marchal & Claire Naiditch, 2020. "How Borrowing Constraints Hinder Migration: Theoretical Insights from a Random Utility Maximization Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 732-761, April.
    12. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Cosimo Beverelli, 2022. "Pull factors for migration: The impact of migrant integration policies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 171-191, March.
    14. Fuchs, Andreas & Gröger, André & Heidland, Tobias & Wellner, Lukas, 2023. "The effect of foreign aid on migration: Global micro evidence from world bank projects," Kiel Working Papers 2257, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Benjamin Jung, 2023. "The Trade Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Heterogeneity Across Time, Country Pairs, and Directions of Trade within Country Pairs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 617-656, July.
    16. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jordi Paniagua, 2021. "Has the Euro paid off? A study of the trade-induced welfare effects of the EMU," Working Papers 2103, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    17. Johannes Buggle & Thierry Mayer & Seyhun Orcan Sakalli & Mathias Thoenig, 2023. "The Refugee’s Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1273-1345.
    18. Frensch, Richard & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Rindler, Michael, 2023. "Topography, borders, and trade across Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 816-832.
    19. Zouheir El-Sahli, 2023. "The Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 185-199, March.
    20. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Johannes Bollen, 2018. "Estimating migration changes from the EU’s free movement of people principle," CPB Discussion Paper 385, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forced migration; Food crisis; Food insecurity; liquidity constraints; heterogeneous migration costs; Gravity equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vicente Esteve (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvales.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.