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El rol de las exportaciones en el crecimiento económico regional

Author

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  • Andrés Pardo
  • Patricio Meller

Abstract

Varios estudios han encontrado que las exportaciones juegan un rol fundamental en la economía chilena,pero ¿cómo es este rol a nivel específico en cada una de las regiones del país?, ¿cuál es el efecto empírico en términos de crecimiento económico, el hecho de que una región se oriente en mayor grado al mercado externo? El objetivo de este estudio es analizar y cuantificar el impacto que tienen las exportaciones en el crecimiento económico de las regiones de Chile. Se realizan estimaciones econométricas de panel de acuerdo a dos modelos teóricos distintos. Primero, se utiliza un modelo de oferta que incorpora a las exportaciones dentro de una función de producción agregada de la economía; las exportaciones generarían una externalidad que induciría un aumento de la productividad total de los factores. El segundo modelo supone que el PIB de las regiones está determinado por la demanda de bienes y servicios del mercado externo (las exportaciones) y del mercado nacional. Por último, se han combinado estos dos modelos de oferta y demanda en un modelo reducido, cuyos resultados econométricos son consistentes con aquéllos obtenidos separadamente para cada uno de los dos modelos anteriores. Los resultados econométricos indican que la elasticidad exportaciones/producto es alrededor de 0,20 para las regiones relativamente más orientadas a las exportaciones; es decir, un aumento de un 10% en el nivel de las exportaciones regionales genera un incremento de un 2% del PIB regional. Alrededor de un 20% del efecto positivo de las exportaciones se debe a la presencia de una externalidad positiva en el sector no transable de la economía. Además, el efecto positivo de las exportaciones sobre el producto se canaliza a través del factor productivo capital con una elasticidad alrededor de 0,08, y a través del factor productivo trabajo con una elasticidad alrededor de 0,04. El efecto positivo de las exportaciones se canalizaría además a través de la productividad total de los factores, con una elasticidad que si bien es positiva (0,05) no es estadísticamente robusta. Por último, se concluye que las regiones que se orientan en mayor grado a las exportaciones convergen a un nivel de producto per cápita de estado estacionario mayor que el resto de las regiones.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Pardo & Patricio Meller, 2002. "El rol de las exportaciones en el crecimiento económico regional," Documentos de Trabajo 143, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:143
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1996. "Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    3. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    4. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April.
    5. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    6. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. José Ignacio Cuesta & Francisco Gallego & Felipe A. González, 2013. "Local Impacts of Economic Liberalization: Evidence from the Chilean Agricultural Sector," Working Papers ClioLab 17, EH Clio Lab. Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.
    2. Etna Mercedes Bayona Velásquez, 2016. "Producción de carbón y crecimiento económico en la región minera del Caribe colombiano," Revista de Economía del Caribe 14789, Universidad del Norte.
    3. José I. Cuesta & Francisco A. Gallego & Felipe A. González, 2015. "Local Impacts of Trade Liberalization: Evidence from the Chilean Agricultural Sector," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo J. Caballero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (ed.),Economic Policies in Emerging-Market Economies Festschrift in Honor of Vittorio Corbo, edition 1, volume 21, chapter 14, pages 351-378, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Chile's Economic Growth," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 5-48.

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