IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tei/journl/v9y2016i1p57-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Nonlinear Analysis of External Dynamics on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Sinem Pınar Gürel

    (Pamukkale University, Department of Economics)

  • Aykut Lenger

    (Ege University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Purpose - This paper attempts to analyse the empirical link between economic growth and the external shocks in a small open developing economy, Turkey, focusing on the nonlinearity between the dynamics for the 1992-2011 period. Design/methodology/approach - This paper examines the effects of trade and financial openness and oil price, the most important trading partners' GDP growth as well as for external dynamics of economic growth. To this end, this paper employs a Structural VAR (SVAR) and a nonlinear Markov-Switching VAR model. We examine the nonlinearity to let the effects of the external dynamics vary with the level of economic growth. Findings - The results suggest the external dynamics considered in this paper - namely trade and financial openness, oil prices and growth rate of Germany - initially explain 29% of economic growth in Turkey, according to the linear estimation method. In the long run, this percentage climbs to 51%. The nonlinear analysis shows that the magnitude of the effect of the external dynamics in recession periods is almost twice as high as in expansion. Research limitations/Implications - This paper provides first attempt of the nonlinear analysis of the growth - external dynamics for Turkey, future research effort is required to substantiate our findings. Originality/value – The originality of this paper lies in the finding that the effects of external dynamics on economic growth differs according to the growth stage as the economy is in the expansion period or recession period.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinem Pınar Gürel & Aykut Lenger, 2016. "The Nonlinear Analysis of External Dynamics on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 9(1), pages 57-68, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:9:y:2016:i:1:p:57-68
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijbesar.af.duth.gr/docs/volume9_issue1/economic_growth_turkey.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ijbesar.af.duth.gr/volume9_issue1.php
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "The Positive Link Between Financial Liberalization Growth and Crises," UCLA Economics Working Papers 834, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    4. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    6. Joshua Aizenman, 2004. "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 473-494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    10. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    11. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    12. Utku Utkulu & Durmus Özdemir, 2005. "Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 245-266, September.
    13. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1999. "Oil prices and U.S. aggregate economic activity: a question of neutrality," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 16-23.
    14. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1991. "Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 43-61.
    15. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    16. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    17. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    18. Ajit Singh, 2003. "Capital account liberalisation, free long-term capital flows, financial crises and economic development," Chapters, in: Philip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & John S.L. McCombie (ed.), Globalisation, Regionalism and Economic Activity, chapter 1, pages 15-46, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    20. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    21. repec:umd:umdeco:rodriguez9901 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    24. repec:ilo:ilowps:388773 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    26. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Miller, Stephen M. & Upadhyay, Mukti P., 2000. "The effects of openness, trade orientation, and human capital on total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 399-423, December.
    28. Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 1998. "Regional Integration and Economic Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(2), pages 251-270, May.
    29. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
    30. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    31. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    32. James L. Butkiewicz & Halit Yanikkaya, 2008. "Capital Account Openness, International Trade, and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 15-38, March.
    33. Michael W. Klein & Giovanni P. Olivei, 1999. "Capital account liberalization, financial depth, and economic growth," Working Papers 99-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    34. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    35. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    36. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge E. Roldós & Peter Wickham, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 132-160, March.
    37. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    38. Andrzej Cieślik & Monika Tarsalewska, 2011. "External Openness and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 729-744, November.
    39. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
    40. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    41. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
    42. Greenaway, David & Morgan, Wyn & Wright, Peter W, 1998. "Trade Reform, Adjustment and Growth: What Does the Evidence Tell Us?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1547-1561, September.
    43. Hoeven, Rolph van der. & Lübker, Malte., 2006. "Financial openness and employment the need for coherent international and national policies," ILO Working Papers 993887733402676, International Labour Organization.
    44. Blankenau, William & Ayhan Kose, M. & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 867-889, June.
    45. Edwards, Sebastian, 1992. "Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
    46. Prachowny,Martin F. J., 1986. "Money in the Macroeconomy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521315944, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    2. Klaus Wälde & Christina Wood, 2004. "The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 275-292, January.
    3. Musleh-Ud Din & Ejaz Ghani & Omer Siddique, 2003. "Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 795-807.
    4. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    6. Ana María Cuadros Ramos, 2000. "Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de causalidad para México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64.
    7. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2005. "Does openness imply greater exposure ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3733, The World Bank.
    9. Jin, Jang C., 2006. "Can openness be an engine of sustained high growth rates and inflation?: Evidence from Japan and Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 228-240.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    11. Iyke Bernard Njindan, 2017. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24, March.
    12. Chun‐ping Chang & Yung‐hsiang Ying, 2008. "The Generative Power Of Air Freight In The Trade Openness – Economic Growth Nexus In African Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 493-512, September.
    13. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    14. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation, Financial Development and Economic Growth," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:19, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    15. Rendón Obando, Hernando & Ramírez Franco, Luz Dary, 2017. "Impacto de la inversión extranjera directa y del grado de apertura de la economía sobre el crecimiento económico para América Latina 1980-2010/Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Openness Degree o," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 217-244, Enero.
    16. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
    17. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    18. Bretschger, Lucas, 2010. "Taxes, mobile capital, and economic dynamics in a globalizing world," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 594-605, June.
    19. Jin, Jang C., 2006. "Openness, growth, and inflation: Evidence from South Korea before the economic crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 738-757, October.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; External Dynamics; Nonlinear Estimation; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:9:y:2016:i:1:p:57-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kostas Stergidis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbikagr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.