IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/wc2000/1721.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Networks, Options and Preemption

Author

Listed:
  • Robin Mason

    (University of Southampton)

  • Helen Weeds

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper examines the irreversible adoption of a technology whose returns are uncertain, when there is an advantage to being the first adopter, but a network advantage to adopting when others also adopt. There are two main results. First, conditional on adoption being sequential, the follower adopts at the incorrect point, compared with the cooperative solution. The leader adopts at the cooperative point when there is no preemption, and too early if there is preemption. Secondly, there is insufficient simultaneous adoption in equilibrium. The paper examines how these inefficiencies vary as the degree of uncertainty and network effects change. Interesting interactions between the various factors are found. For example, the analysis raises the interesting possibility that the introduction of a small amount of uncertainty can cause the first mover to adopt the technology earlier.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin Mason & Helen Weeds, 2000. "Networks, Options and Preemption," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1721, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1721
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1721.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1985. "Standardization, Compatibility, and Innovation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(1), pages 70-83, Spring.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Hoppe, Heidrun C., 2000. "Second-mover advantages in the strategic adoption of new technology under uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 315-338, February.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    5. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    6. Patrick Bolton & Christopher Harris, 1999. "Strategic Experimentation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 349-374, March.
    7. Bergemann, Dirk & Valimaki, Juuso, 1996. "Learning and Strategic Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1125-1149, September.
    8. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    9. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    10. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 822-841, August.
    11. Fudenberg, Drew & Gilbert, Richard & Stiglitz, Joseph & Tirole, Jean, 1983. "Preemption, leapfrogging and competition in patent races," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-31, June.
    12. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    13. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1988. "A Theory of Dynamic Oligopoly, I: Overview and Quantity Competition with Large Fixed Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 549-569, May.
    14. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1986. "A Theory of Exit in Duopoly," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 943-960, July.
    15. Jay Pil Choi, 1994. "Irreversible Choice of Uncertain Technologies with Network Externalities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(3), pages 382-401, Autumn.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Levine, Paul & Rickman, Neil & Tzavara, Dionisia, 2002. "Market Entry and Roll-out With Product Differentiation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
    3. Tyrone Lin, 2010. "Assessment of decision-making regarding market entry/exit for technology innovation," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 447-457, April.
    4. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2000. "Networks, Options and Preemption," Economic Research Papers 269346, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. Weeds, Helen & Mason, Robin, 2001. "Irreversible Investment with Strategic Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
    4. Moretto, Michele, 2000. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and strategic behavior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 589-617, December.
    5. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    6. Meng, Rujing, 2008. "A patent race in a real options setting: Investment strategy, valuation, CAPM beta, and return volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3192-3217, October.
    7. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    8. Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May.
    9. Drew Fudenberg, 2015. "Tirole's Industrial Regulation and Organization Legacy in Economics," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(3), pages 771-800, July.
    10. Yao-Wen Hsu & Bart Lambrecht, 2007. "Preemptive patenting under uncertainty and asymmetric information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 5-28, April.
    11. Weeds, Helen, 2000. "Strategic Delay In A Real Options Model Of R&D Competition," Economic Research Papers 269347, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    12. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Strategic investment with positive externalities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-21.
    13. Weeds, Helen & Mason, Robin, 2010. "The Timing of Takeovers in Growing and Declining Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Han T.J. Smit & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2006. "Real options and games: Competition, alliances and other applications of valuation and strategy," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 95-112.
    15. Smit, Han T.J. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2006. "Real options and games: Competition, alliances and other applications of valuation and strategy," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 95-112.
    16. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki, 1996. "Market Experimentation and Pricing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1122, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    18. Atal, Vidya & Bar, Talia & Gordon, Sidartha, 2016. "Project selection: Commitment and competition," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 30-48.
    19. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    20. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Investment timing and vertical relationships," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-123.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.