IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/ausm04/310.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Estimation of Returns to Scale, Technical Progress and Monopolistic Markups

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin J. Fox
  • W. Erwin Diewert

Abstract

This paper derives a number of theoretical results in the context of estimating returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups when there are multiple outputs and/or multiple inputs. The choice between value added versus gross output in the estimation of returns to scale is also addressed, including consideration of problems that arise in aggregation across sectors of an economy. As an illustration, we use US data on manufacturing at the aggregate, sector and industry levels, and find evidence of strong increasing returns to scale across all levels of aggregation. Technical progress is typically found to be insignificant implying that, contrary to many previous results, US economic growth has been driven by increasing returns to scale rather than technical progress. Such findings have important implications for the macroeconomic modeling of economic fluctuatio

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin J. Fox & W. Erwin Diewert, 2004. "On the Estimation of Returns to Scale, Technical Progress and Monopolistic Markups," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 310, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Binswanger, Hans P, 1974. "The Measurement of Technical Change Biases with Many Factors of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 964-976, December.
    3. Jones, Charles I., 2005. "Growth and Ideas," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1063-1111, Elsevier.
    4. Allen, Robert C & Diewert, W Erwin, 1981. "Direct versus Implicit Superlative Index Number Formulae," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 430-435, August.
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8681 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    7. Paul Schreyer, 2001. "The OECD Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measurement of Industry-Level and Aggregate Productivity," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 2, pages 37-51, Spring.
    8. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1963. "Technological Change in the Machine Tool Industry, 1840–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 414-443, December.
    9. Diewert, W. Erwin & Fox, Kevin J., 2008. "On the estimation of returns to scale, technical progress and monopolistic markups," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 174-193, July.
    10. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 2002. "Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 963-991, June.
    11. Burgess, David F, 1974. "A Cost Minimization Approach to Import Demand Equations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 56(2), pages 225-234, May.
    12. Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "The Economic Theory of Index Numbers and the Measurement of Input, Output, and Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1393-1414, November.
    13. Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2007. "Robustness Of Productivity Estimates," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 529-569, September.
    14. Sokoloff, Kenneth L., 1988. "Inventive Activity in Early Industrial America: Evidence From Patent Records, 1790–1846," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 813-850, December.
    15. Morrison, Catherine J, 1992. "Unraveling the Productivity Growth Slowdown in the United States, Canada and Japan: The Effects of Subequilibrium, Scale Economies and Markups," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 381-393, August.
    16. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Increasing Returns and Animal Spirits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 889-894, September.
    17. repec:bla:scandj:v:85:y:1983:i:2:p:159-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Guo, Jang-Ting, 2004. "Increasing returns, capital utilization, and the effects of government spending," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1059-1078, March.
    19. Romer, Paul M, 1996. "Why, Indeed, in America? Theory, History, and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 202-206, May.
    20. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    21. Roeger, Werner, 1995. "Can Imperfect Competition Explain the Difference between Primal and Dual Productivity Measures? Estimates for U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 316-330, April.
    22. Takanobu Nakajima & Masao Nakamura & Kanji Yoshioka, 1998. "An Index Number Method for Estimating Scale Economies and Technical Processes Using Time-series of Cross-section Data: Sources of Total Factor Productivity Growth for Japanese Manufacturing, 1964–1988," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 310-334, September.
    23. Hintermaier, Thomas, 2003. "On the minimum degree of returns to scale in sunspot models of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 400-409, June.
    24. Burnside, Craig, 1996. "Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 177-201, April.
    25. Berndt, Ernst R & Khaled, Mohammed S, 1979. "Parametric Productivity Measurement and Choice among Flexible Functional Forms," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1220-1245, December.
    26. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    27. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8681 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Appelbaum, Elie, 1979. "Testing price taking behavior," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 283-294, February.
    29. McElroy, Marjorie B, 1987. "Additive General Error Models for Production, Cost, and Derived Demand or Share Systems," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 737-757, August.
    30. Devereux, Michael B & Head, Allen C & Lapham, Beverly J, 1996. "Monopolistic Competition, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 233-254, May.
    31. Beaudry, Paul & Devereux, Michael B., 1995. "Money and the real exchange rate with sticky prices and increasing returns," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 55-101, December.
    32. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    33. Diamond, Peter A & Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "Optimal Taxation and Public Production II: Tax Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 261-278, June.
    34. M. C. Casson, 1974. "Generalized Errors in Variables Regression," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(3), pages 347-352.
    35. Catherine J. Morrison & Donald Siegel, 1997. "External Capital Factors And Increasing Returns In U.S. Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 647-654, November.
    36. Bartelsman, Eric J., 1995. "Of empty boxes: Returns to scale revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 59-67, July.
    37. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin J Fox, 2005. "Returns to Scale, Technical Progress and Total Factor Productivity Growth in New Zealand Industries," Treasury Working Paper Series 05/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Paul Schreyer & María Belén Zinni, 2021. "Productivity Measurement, R&D Assets, and Mark‐Ups in OECD Countries," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(4), pages 787-809, December.
    3. W. Diewert & Kevin Fox, 2010. "Malmquist and Törnqvist productivity indexes: returns to scale and technical progress with imperfect competition," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 101(1), pages 73-95, September.
    4. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mark Vancauteren & Bruno Henry de Frahan, 2011. "Trade Policy, Competition and Productivity: The Impact of EU Harmonization in the Dutch Food Processing Industry," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 483-509, December.
    6. W. Erwin Diewert & Takanobu Nakajima & Alice Nakamura & Emi Nakamura & Masao Nakamura, 2011. "Returns to scale: concept, estimation and analysis of Japan's turbulent 1964–88 economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 451-485, May.
    7. Bertrand Koebel & François Laisney, 2016. "Aggregation with Cournot Competition: An Empirical Investigation," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 121-122, pages 91-119.
    8. Xi Chen, 2011. "Increasing Returns to Scale in U.S. manufacturing industries: evidence from direct and reverse regression," Working Papers of BETA 2011-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. Simon Wiederhold, 2012. "The Role of Public Procurement in Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 43.
    10. Diewert, Erwin & Fox, Kevin J., 2019. "Productivity Indexes and National Statistics: Theory, Methods and Challenges," Microeconomics.ca working papers erwin_diewert-2019-8, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 25 Apr 2019.
    11. Feng, Guohua & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Productivity trends in U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from the NQ and AIM cost functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 281-311, January.
    12. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "Increasing Returns, Balanced-Budget Rules, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Post-Print hal-02315041, HAL.
    13. Bill Dupor, 2005. "Keynesian Conundrum: Multiplicity and Time Consistent Stabilization," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 154-177, January.
    14. Frederic Warzynski & Jan De Loecker, 2010. "Markups and Firm-level Exports," 2010 Meeting Papers 438, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Jan De Loecker & Frederic Warzynski, 2012. "Markups and Firm-Level Export Status," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2437-2471, October.
    16. Massimo Del Gatto & Adriana Di Liberto & Carmelo Petraglia, 2011. "Measuring Productivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 952-1008, December.
    17. Feng, Guohua & Serletis, Apostolos, 2010. "A primal Divisia technical change index based on the output distance function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 320-330, December.
    18. Kee Hiau Looi, 2004. "Estimating Productivity When Primal and Dual TFP Accounting Fail: An Illustration Using Singapore's Industries," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-40, October.
    19. Magris, Francesco, 2012. "Indeterminacy and multiple steady states with sector-specific externalities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2664-2672.
    20. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity Growth; Technical Progress; Returns to Scale; Aggregation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.