IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/stabus/1956.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conservatism, Growth, and Return on Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Rajan, Madhav

    (Stanford U)

  • Reichelstein, Stefan J.
  • Soliman, Mark T.

Abstract

Return on Investment (ROI) is widely regarded as a key measure of firm profitability. The accounting literature has long recognized that ROI will generally not reflect economic profitability, as determined by the internal rate of return (IRR) of a firm's investment projects. In particular, it has been noted that accounting conservatism may result in an upward bias of ROI, relative to the underlying IRR. We examine both theoretically and empirically the behavior of ROI as a function of two variables: past growth in new investments and accounting conservatism. Higher growth is shown to result in lower levels of ROI provided the accounting is conservative, while the opposite is generally true for liberal accounting policies. Conversely, more conservative accounting will increase ROI provided growth in new investments has been "moderate" over the relevant horizon, while the opposite is true if new investments grew at sufficiently high rates. Taken together, we find that conservatism and growth are "substitutes" in their joint impact on ROI.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajan, Madhav & Reichelstein, Stefan J. & Soliman, Mark T., 2006. "Conservatism, Growth, and Return on Investment," Research Papers 1956, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1956
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://gsbapps.stanford.edu/researchpapers/library/RP1956.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    2. Ľuboš Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk–Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
    3. Ohlson, James & Gao, Zhan, 2006. "Earnings, Earnings Growth and Value," Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-70, August.
    4. Greenball, Mn, 1969. "Appraising Alternative Methods Of Accounting For Accelerated Tax Depreciation - Relative-Accuracy Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 262-289.
    5. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    6. Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2006. "International Differences in the Cost of Equity Capital: Do Legal Institutions and Securities Regulation Matter?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 485-531, June.
    7. James H. Chan-Lee & Helen Sutch, 1985. "Profits and Rates of Return in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 20, OECD Publishing.
    8. Rogerson, William P, 1997. "Intertemporal Cost Allocation and Managerial Investment Incentives: A Theory Explaining the Use of Economic Value Added as a Performance Measure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 770-795, August.
    9. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    10. Thomas R. Stauffer, 1971. "The Measurement of Corporate Rates of Return: A Generalized Formulation," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(2), pages 434-469, Autumn.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    12. Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2000. "Conservative accounting and equity valuation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 125-149, February.
    13. Christine A. Botosan & Marlene A. Plumlee, 2002. "A Re‐examination of Disclosure Level and the Expected Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 21-40, March.
    14. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R., 2000. "Uniformly least powerful tests of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 361-389, March.
    15. Guay, Wayne R., 1999. "The sensitivity of CEO wealth to equity risk: an analysis of the magnitude and determinants," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 43-71, July.
    16. Ball, Ray & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan, 2005. "Earnings quality in UK private firms: comparative loss recognition timeliness," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-128, February.
    17. Ohlson, JA & Zhang, XJ, 1998. "Accrual accounting and equity valuation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36, pages 85-111.
    18. Baruch Lev & Bharat Sarath & Theodore Sougiannis, 2005. "R&D Reporting Biases and Their Consequences," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 977-1026, December.
    19. Salamon, Gerald L., 1988. "On the validity of accounting rates of return in cross-sectional analysis: Theory, evidence, and implications," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 267-292.
    20. Gaver, Jennifer J. & Gaver, Kenneth M., 1993. "Additional evidence on the association between the investment opportunity set and corporate financing, dividend, and compensation policies," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-3), pages 125-160, April.
    21. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    23. Feltham, GA & Ohlson, JA, 1996. "Uncertainty resolution and the theory of depreciation measurement," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 209-234.
    24. Penman, SH, 1996. "The articulation of price-earnings ratios and market-to-book ratios and the evaluation of growth," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 235-259.
    25. Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
    26. Fisher, Franklin M & McGowan, John J, 1983. "On the Misuse of Accounting Rates of Return to Infer Monopoly Profits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 82-97, March.
    27. Salamon, Gerald L, 1985. "Accounting Rates of Return," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 495-504, June.
    28. Peter Easton & Gary Taylor & Pervin Shroff & Theodore Sougiannis, 2002. "Using Forecasts of Earnings to Simultaneously Estimate Growth and the Rate of Return on Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 657-676, June.
    29. Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2000. "The changing time-series properties of earnings, cash flows and accruals: Has financial reporting become more conservative?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 287-320, June.
    30. Dan Dhaliwal & Linda Krull & Oliver Zhen Li & William Moser, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Implied Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 675-708, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Echterling, F. & Eierle, B. & Ketterer, S., 2015. "A review of the literature on methods of computing the implied cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 235-252.
    2. Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2009. "Depreciation Rules and the Relation between Marginal and Historical Cost," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 823-865, June.
    3. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    4. Norio Kitagawa & Hyonok Kim & Masatoshi Goto, 2011. "The effect of non-financial risk information on the evaluation of implied cost of capitals," Discussion Papers 2011-07, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration, revised Feb 2011.
    5. Teresa Chu & In-Mu Haw & Bryan Lee & Woody Wu, 2014. "Cost of equity capital, control divergence, and institutions: the international evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 483-527, October.
    6. Stephen H. Penman & Xiao-Jun Zhang, 2021. "Connecting book rate of return to risk and return: the information conveyed by conservative accounting," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 391-423, March.
    7. Wu, Jin (Ginger) & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Does Risk Explain Anomalies? Evidence from Expected Return Estimates," Working Paper Series 2010-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    8. Maureen McNichols & Madhav V. Rajan & Stefan Reichelstein, 2014. "Conservatism Correction for the Market-To-Book Ratio and Tobin's q," CESifo Working Paper Series 4626, CESifo.
    9. Norio Kitagawa & Masatoshi Gotoh, 2011. "Implied Cost of Capital over the Last 20 Years," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 1, pages 71-104, December.
    10. Pope, Peter F., 2010. "Bridging the gap between accounting and finance," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 88-102.
    11. Lyle, Matthew R. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2015. "The cross section of expected holding period returns and their dynamics: A present value approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 505-525.
    12. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2012. "The implied cost of capital: A new approach," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 504-526.
    13. Terry Shevlin, 2013. "Some personal observations on the debate on the link between financial reporting quality and the cost of equity capital," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(3), pages 447-473, December.
    14. Pengguo Wang, 2018. "Future Realized Return, Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(1), pages 105-132, March.
    15. Jan A. Kempkes & Francesco Suprano & Andreas Wömpener, 2023. "An empirical evaluation of dynamic approaches for estimating firms’ expected cost of equity capital," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 859-886, November.
    16. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    17. Rjiba, Hatem & Saadi, Samir & Boubaker, Sabri & Ding, Xiaoya (Sara), 2021. "Annual report readability and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Barth, Mary E. & Konchitchki, Yaniv & Landsman, Wayne R., 2013. "Cost of capital and earnings transparency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 206-224.
    19. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Pittman, Jeffrey, 2016. "Cross-country evidence on the importance of Big Four auditors to equity pricing: The mediating role of legal institutions," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 60-81.
    20. Hail, Luzi & Leuz, Christian, 2009. "Cost of capital effects and changes in growth expectations around U.S. cross-listings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 428-454, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1956. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gsstaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.