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Evaluating the impact of dividend restrictions on euro area bank market values

Author

Listed:
  • Andreeva, Desislava
  • Bochmann, Paul
  • Schneider, Julius

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of the March 2020 European Central Bank recommenda-tion that banks do not pay dividends or buy back shares on their market values. It documents a causal negative impact on bank share prices of around 7% during the two weeks following its announcement. The recommendation affected the market values of banks directly, by delaying investor cash flows and indirectly, by increasing the uncertainty about future distri-butions and thus banks’ equity risk premia. The impact differed across banks depending on their distribution plans and risk-adjusted profitability. Our analysis highlights the impor-tance of managing perceptions about dividend uncertainty through credible communication about the expected duration, frequency and severity of dividend restrictions to limit their unintended side effects. JEL Classification: G12, G21, G28, G35

Suggested Citation

  • Andreeva, Desislava & Bochmann, Paul & Schneider, Julius, 2023. "Evaluating the impact of dividend restrictions on euro area bank market values," Working Paper Series 2787, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232787
    Note: 2285252
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2787~04133e65f9.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
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    4. Altavilla, Carlo & Bochmann, Paul & De Ryck, Jeroen & Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Grodzicki, Maciej & Kick, Heinrich & Fernandes, Cecilia Melo & Mosthaf, Jonas & O’Donnell, Charles & Palligkinis, Spyros, 2021. "Measuring the cost of equity of euro area banks," Occasional Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    5. Falagiarda, Matteo & Prapiestis, Algirdas & Rancoita, Elena, 2020. "Public loan guarantees and bank lending in the COVID-19 period," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    6. Marco Belloni & Maciej Grodzicki & Mariusz Jarmuzek, 2024. "Why European banks adjust their dividend payouts?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 284-304, September.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Floyd, Eric & Li, Nan & Skinner, Douglas J., 2015. "Payout policy through the financial crisis: The growth of repurchases and the resilience of dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 299-316.
    9. Couaillier, Cyril & Lo Duca, Marco & Reghezza, Alessio & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Scopelliti, Alessandro, 2021. "Bank capital buffers and lending in the euro area during the pandemic," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ampudia, Miguel & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Smets, Frank & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2023. "System-wide Dividend Restrictions: Evidence and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 18467, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Acosta-Smith, Jonathan & Barunik, Jozef & Gerba, Eddie & Katsoulis, Petros, 2024. "Moderation or indulgence? Effects of bank distribution restrictions during stress," Bank of England working papers 1053, Bank of England.
    3. Sanders, Emiel & Simoens, Mathieu & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2024. "Curse and blessing: The effect of the dividend ban on euro area bank valuations and syndicated lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Salvatore Federico & Andrea Modena & Luca Regis, 2025. "The Power of Faith: Effects of an Imam-led Information Campaign on Labor Supply and Social Interactions," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_622, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Chen, Xiaoqi & Li, Weiping & Torsin, Wouter & Tsang, Albert, 2024. "Dividend policy under mandatory ESG reporting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank capital; bank cost of equity; bank dividends; banking supervision; COVID-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

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