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The ECB press conference: a textual analysis

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  • Pavelkova, Andrea

Abstract

The aim of central bank communication is to provide information on monetary policy and the economic outlook in a timely manner to the public. While research on central bank communication and specifically the European Central Bank’s press conference has shown that it has the potential to move markets, in-depth textual analysis of key communication tools creates room for further analysis. Focusing on the press conferences of the ECB, this paper employs structural topic modelling (STM) and finds that topics within the introductory statement and the Q&A are significantly different, with a nearly equal split of topics unique to both parts. The split of topics suggests that the Q&A does not only provide clarification of what has been said in the introductory statement, but also allows journalists to enquire about the discussion within the Governing Council as well as the ECB’s stance on broader economic issues. JEL Classification: E50, E52, E58

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  • Pavelkova, Andrea, 2022. "The ECB press conference: a textual analysis," Working Paper Series 2742, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    3. Stefano Nardelli & David Martens & Ellen Tobback, 2017. "Between hawks and doves: measuring Central Bank Communication," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Big Data, volume 44, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Tobback, Ellen & Nardelli, Stefano & Martens, David, 2017. "Between hawks and doves: measuring central bank communication," Working Paper Series 2085, European Central Bank.
    5. Ullrich, Katrin, 2008. "Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
    6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    8. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 42-84, June.
    10. Alan Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2017. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(1), pages 12-13, 04.
    11. Margaret Roberts & Brandon Stewart & Tingley, Dustin, 2014. "stm: R Package for Structural Topic Models," Working Paper 176291, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    12. Alan Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2017. "Necessity as the mother of invention: monetary policy after the crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 707-755.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Not all ECB meetings are created equal," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202312, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta & Vänni, Ilona, 2024. "Reading between the lines: Uncovering asymmetry in the central bank loss function," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2024, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank communication; ECB press conference; natural language processing; structural topic model; text analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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