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The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment

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  • Vetlov, Igor
  • Ferdinandusse, Marien
  • de Jong, Jasper
  • Funda, Josip

Abstract

We consider the effect of an increase in public investments on output in Europe against the background of a sharp drop of public investments in a number of EU countries during the crisis and subsequent policy discussions on the need to stimulate public investments. We start with a brief overview of recent developments in public investments, including some methodological issues, and provide a literature overview of the effect of public investments on growth. On the basis of updated estimates of the public capital stock, we estimate the output response to a public capital impulse, using VAR models. In addition, using a structural model, we investigate the sensitivity of the macroeconomic impact of an increase in public investments to alternative assumptions about economic structures and policy implementations. JEL Classification: E32, E62, C30

Suggested Citation

  • Vetlov, Igor & Ferdinandusse, Marien & de Jong, Jasper & Funda, Josip, 2017. "The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment," Working Paper Series 2021, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172021
    Note: 673741
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    2. J. F. M. De Jong & M. Ferdinandusse & J. Funda, 2018. "Public capital in the 21st century: as productive as ever?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5543-5560, November.
    3. Andreea Ocolișanu & Gabriela Dobrotă & Dan Dobrotă, 2022. "The Effects of Public Investment on Sustainable Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
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    7. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    8. Masten, Igor & Grdović Gnip, Ana, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1179-1194.
    9. Sebastian Dullien & Ekaterina Jürgens & Christoph Paetz & Sebastian Watzka, 2021. "Wachstums- und Verschuldungseffekte einer kreditfinanzierten öffentlichen Investitionsoffensive [Growth and Debt Effects of a Credit-Financed Public Investment Offensive]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(9), pages 700-705, September.
    10. J. F. M. De Jong & M. Ferdinandusse & J. Funda, 2018. "Public capital in the 21st century: as productive as ever?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5543-5560, November.
    11. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2020. "Financing government investment and its implications for public capital: A small open economy perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 620-641.
    12. Petrović, Pavle & Arsić, Milojko & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2021. "Increasing public investment can be an effective policy in bad times: Evidence from emerging EU economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 580-597.
    13. Alessandro Cantelmo & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of growth-enhancing measures in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1384, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. P. Butzen & S. Cheliout & N. Cordemans & E. De Prest & W. Melyn & L. Van Meensel & S. Van Parys, 2017. "Towards a new policy mix in the euro area ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 63-91, December.
    15. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Melina Vasardani & Evangelia Vourvachaki, 2021. "The impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility on the Greek economy," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 53, pages 7-28, July.
    16. Muhammad Javid, 2019. "Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, June.
    17. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis, Italy and Ms Merkel’s Turnaround: Will the EU Ever be the Same Again?," EconPol Policy Reports 25, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    18. Noel Rapa & Abigail Marie Rapa, "undated". "The macroeconomic effects of closing the public sector capital gap in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/07/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
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    20. GULER Ovidiu–Vasile, 2020. "Comparative Analysis Of Investments Made In Romania From European Funds Between 2007 - 2013 And 2014 €“ 2020," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 209-218, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; fiscal policy; general equilibrium modelling; public investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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