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Will the true labor share stand up?

Author

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  • McAdam, Peter
  • Muck, Jakub
  • Growiec, Jakub

Abstract

We document the consequences of ambiguity in the empirical definition of the macroeconomic labor share. Depending on its definition, the properties of short-run fluctuations, medium-run swings, and long-run stochastic trends of the labor share may vary substantially. Based on a range of historical US time series, we carry out a systematic exploration of discrepancies between the alternative labor share definitions in terms of the observed stochastic trends, shares of short-, medium- and long-run variation in total volatility of the series, degree of persistence, mean-reversion properties, and susceptibility to structural breaks. We conclude that while short-run properties of the labor shares (represented by cyclical variation below 8 years) are relatively consistent across all definitions, their medium-run swings (8-50 years) and long-run trends ( 50 years) diverge substantially. As important applications, we document the implications of our findings for growth accounting, the identification of short-run responses of the labor share to technology shocks and for estimating inflation. JEL Classification: C82, E25, E32

Suggested Citation

  • McAdam, Peter & Muck, Jakub & Growiec, Jakub, 2015. "Will the true labor share stand up?," Working Paper Series 1806, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151806
    Note: 50336
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1806.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Growiec, Jakub & Mućk, Jakub, 2020. "Isoelastic Elasticity Of Substitution Production Functions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(7), pages 1597-1634, October.
    3. James Ashwell, 2021. "A Strengthening Position at the Bargaining Table? Understanding the Productivity-Median Wage Gap in Canada, 1976-2019," CSLS Research Reports 2021-09, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    4. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    5. Hernando Zuleta, 2015. "Getting Growth Accounting Right," Documentos CEDE 13814, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    6. Brad Sturgill & Hernando Zuleta, 2016. "Variable Factor Shares and the Index Number Problem: A Generalization," Documentos CEDE 15038, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    7. Bom, Pedro R.D. & Erauskin, Iñaki, 2022. "Productive government investment and the labor share," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 347-363.
    8. Jakub Mućk, 2017. "Elasticity of substitution between labor and capital: robust evidence from developed economies," NBP Working Papers 271, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    9. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2018. "Unraveling The Skill Premium," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 33-62, January.
    10. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    11. Marta Guerriero, 2019. "The Labor Share of Income Around the World: Evidence from a Panel Dataset," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Gary Fields & Saumik Paul (ed.), Labor Income Share in Asia, chapter 0, pages 39-79, Springer.
    12. Cantore, Cristiano & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph & Yang, Bo, 2015. "CES technology and business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 133-151.
    13. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20141800 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jakub Growiec & Peter McAdam & Jakub Mućk, 2021. "On the Optimal Labor Income Share," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-52, October.
    15. Cristiano Cantore & Filippo Ferroni & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2021. "The Missing Link: Monetary Policy and The Labor Share," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1592-1620.
    16. Marcin Grela & Aleksandra Majchrowska & Tomasz Michałek & Jakub Mućk & Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak & Grzegorz Tchorek & Marcin Wagner, 2017. "Is Central and Eastern Europe converging towards the EU-15?," NBP Working Papers 264, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    17. Anatolijs Prohorovs & Julija Bistrova, 2022. "Labour Share Convergence in the European Union," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor share; mean reversion; persistence; spectral analysis; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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