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Optimism bias? The elasticity puzzle in international economics revisited

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  • Osbat, Chiara
  • Corbo, Vesna

Abstract

The elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods is a central parameter in macroeconomic models, but after decades of empirical studies there is no consensus on its magnitude. Earlier literature using time series arrives at low values, while more recent studies using panel-based econometric methods on disaggregated data find higher values. We examine the econometric methodology of this more recent literature, which follows the seminal work by Feenstra (1994), looking in more detail at the effect on the results of the non-linear mapping between reduced-form and structural parameters. Our main contribution is the use of bootstrap methods, which offer more insight into the Feenstra method and can explain why researchers applying it may tend to find high estimates. The bootstrap not only allows us to obtain considerably less biased estimates of the structural elasticity parameter, but also to better characterize their accuracy, a point vastly overlooked by the literature. JEL Classification: C14, C23, F14

Suggested Citation

  • Osbat, Chiara & Corbo, Vesna, 2012. "Optimism bias? The elasticity puzzle in international economics revisited," Working Paper Series 1482, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121482
    Note: 261931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Osbat, Chiara & Jochem, Alex & Özyurt, Selin & Tello, Patry & Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Micallef, Brian & Sideris, Dimitris & Papadopoulou, Niki & Ajevskis, Viktors & Krekó, Judit & Gaulier, Guillaume , 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    2. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    3. Osbat, Chiara & Corbo, Vesna, 2013. "Trade adjustment in the European Union - a structural estimation approach," Working Paper Series 1535, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bootstrap; Elasticity of Substitution; heterogeneity; trade elasticities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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