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Wage and price dynamics in Portugal

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  • Robalo Marques, Carlos

Abstract

This paper investigates the persistence of aggregate wages and prices in Portugal assuming a model of a unionised economy with imperfect competition. An impulse response analysis is conducted where the structural shocks are identified by taking into account the long-run properties of the model, as well as the co-integrating and weak-exogeneity properties of the system. Real wages and wage inflation emerge as especially persistent following an import price shock, while price inflation is more persistent following an unemployment shock. At the business cycle horizon variation in the forecast errors of wages is attributable mainly to unemployment shocks (about 80 percent), whereas variation in the forecast errors of prices is attributable mainly to import price shocks (about 60 percent) and to unemployment shocks (around 20 percent). Productivity shocks explain somewhat less than 10 percent of the variation in forecast errors of wages and prices. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E31, J30

Suggested Citation

  • Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2008. "Wage and price dynamics in Portugal," Working Paper Series 945, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008945
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rita Duarte & Carlos Marques, 2013. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 613-638, April.
    2. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo & Martins, Fernando, 2013. "Wage rigidity and employment adjustment at the firm level: Evidence from survey data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 40-49.
    3. Fernando Martins & Daniel Dias, 2012. "Labour cost-cutting strategies microeconomic evidence from survey data," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    impulse response function; persistence; prices; structural error-correction model; wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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