IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2006579.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances

Author

Listed:
  • Kremer, Jana
  • Rodrigues Braz, Cláudia
  • Brosens, Teunis
  • Langenus, Geert
  • Momigliano, Sandro
  • Spolander, Mikko

Abstract

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of macroeconomic and other developments and is sufficiently standardised to be used in multi-country studies. Here, it is applied to Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal over the period 1998 to 2004. During this period the structural primary balance ratio clearly worsened in all countries except Finland. In Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands, both revenue and expenditure contributed to the deterioration of the structural primary balance. In Germany the large deterioration in revenue was partially offset by the decline in the structural primary expenditure ratio, while the opposite was true for Portugal. The analysis highlights the various factors that contributed to these developments. JEL Classification: H20, H50, H60, E69

Suggested Citation

  • Kremer, Jana & Rodrigues Braz, Cláudia & Brosens, Teunis & Langenus, Geert & Momigliano, Sandro & Spolander, Mikko, 2006. "A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances," Working Paper Series 579, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006579
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp579.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathalie Girouard & Robert Price, 2004. "Asset Price Cycles, “One-Off” Factors and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 391, OECD Publishing.
    2. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    3. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    4. Eschenbach, Felix & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2002. "Asset prices and fiscal balances," Working Paper Series 141, European Central Bank.
    5. Vincent Koen & Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 417, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Mourre & Savina Princen, 2015. "Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 018, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Doris Prammer & Lukas Reiss, 2014. "Fiscal Projections by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank: Methods and Motives," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 31-48.
    3. Morris, Richard & Reiss, Lukas, 2020. "A decomposition of structural revenue developments for euro area member states," Working Paper Series 2455, European Central Bank.
    4. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Daniel Sotelsek & Guido Zack, 2014. "Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 210(3), pages 11-31, September.
    5. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2016. "Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(60), pages 5866-5881, December.
    6. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2020. "2020 annual report of the European Fiscal Board," Annual reports 2020, European Fiscal Board.
    7. Cláudia Braz, 2006. "The Calculation of Cyclically Adjusted Balances at Banco de Portugal: An update," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Duarte, Cláudia & Maria, José R. & Sazedj, Sharmin, 2020. "Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 126-146.
    9. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Luca Agnello & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 43-85, June.
    11. Kuusi, Tero, 2018. "Does the structural budget balance guide fiscal policy pro-cyclically? Evidence from the Finnish Great Depression of the 1990s," MPRA Paper 84829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bauer, Thomas K. & Gebhardt, Heinz & Matz, Florian & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Siemers, Lars-H., 2010. "Ermittlung der Konjunkturkomponenten für die Länderhaushalte zur Umsetzung der in der Föderalismuskommission II vereinbarten Verschuldungsbegrenzung: Endbericht - Juni 2010," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69915.
    13. Cláudia Braz & Maria Manuel Campos & Sharmin Sazedj, 2019. "The new ESCB methodology for the calculation of cyclically adjusted budget balances: an application to the Portuguese case," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Dias, Daniel & Santos Silva, João M. C., 2006. "Measuring the importance of the uniform nonsynchronization hypothesis," Working Paper Series 606, European Central Bank.
    15. Lara Wemans & Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2013. "The macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Klemm, Alexander, 2016. "The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 265-279.
    17. Azra Khan & Sadia Safdar & Samina Bibi, 2021. "Fiscal Discretion And Aggregate Demand: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(2), pages 204-220.
    18. Gábor P. Kiss, 2007. "One-off and off-budget items: An alternative approach," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 18-27, December.
    19. Bode, Oliver & Gerke, Rafael & Schellhorn, Hannes, 2006. "Die Wirkung fiskalischer Schocks auf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt," Working Papers 01/2006, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    20. Jef Vuchelen & Jesse De Wit, 2008. "An Evaluation of the OECD Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Government Balance Forecasts," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(4), pages 459-479.
    21. Tenhofen Jörn & Wolff Guntram B. & Heppke-Falk Kirsten H., 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
    22. Doris Prammer & Lukas Reiss, 2015. "Impact of Inflation on Fiscal Aggregates in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 27-41.
    23. David Amaglobeli & Mr. Valerio Crispolti & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Pooja Karnane & Florian Misch, 2018. "Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database," IMF Working Papers 2018/110, International Monetary Fund.
    24. De Laet, Jean-Pierre & Wöhlbier, Florian, 2008. "Tax burden by economic function A comparison for the EU Member States," MPRA Paper 14761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Lara Wemans, 2015. "Output Effects of a Measure of Tax Shocks Based on Changes in Legislation for Portugal," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 27-62, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
    2. Altar, Moisa & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-99, July.
    3. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    4. Dumitru, Ionut & Stanca, Razvan, 2010. "Fiscal discipline and economic growth – the case of Romania," MPRA Paper 27300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Daniel Sotelsek & Guido Zack, 2014. "Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 210(3), pages 11-31, September.
    6. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "A set of estimated fiscal rules for a cross-section of countries: Stabilization and consolidation through which instruments?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 184-198.
    7. Morris, Richard & Reiss, Lukas, 2020. "A decomposition of structural revenue developments for euro area member states," Working Paper Series 2455, European Central Bank.
    8. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    9. Margit Molnár, 2012. "Fiscal consolidation: What factors determine the success of consolidation efforts?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(1), pages 123-149.
    10. European Commission, 2010. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2010 edition," Taxation trends 2010, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    11. Fotini Economou & Ioanna Kountouri & Yannis Panagopoulos & Georgia Skintzi & Ekaterini Tsouma, 2022. "Estimating excise tax revenue elasticity and buoyancy for tobacco products and alcoholic beverages: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4557-4576, August.
    12. Perugini, Cristiano & Žarković Rakić, Jelena & Vladisavljević, Marko, 2016. "Austerity and gender wage inequality in EU countries," MPRA Paper 76306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Margit Molnar, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 5. What Factors Determine the Success of Consolidation Efforts?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 936, OECD Publishing.
    14. Leon Bettendorf & Duncan van Limbergen, 2013. "The stability of tax elasticities in The Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 256.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. Deli, Yota & Rodriguez, Abian Garcia & Kostarakos, Ilias & Varthalitis, Petros, 2018. "Dynamic tax revenue buoyancy estimates for a panel of OECD countries," Papers WP592, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Bernhard Grossmann & Doris Prammer, 2005. "A Disaggregated Approach to Analyzing Public Finances in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 61-75.
    17. Gösta Ljungman, 2008. "Expenditure Ceilings—A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2008/282, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    19. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2009. "Can we rely on real time figures for cyclically adjusted budget balances?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2009-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Oct 2009.
    20. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania," IMF Working Papers 2011/270, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal forecasting and monitoring; fiscal indicators; Structural budget balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.