IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2011-270.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Abstract

This paper quantifies the variability of tax elasticities in Lithuania using two alternative methods: rolling regressions and pooled mean group estimator. The analysis is motivated by the systematic variation of tax revenues observed over the economic cycle in the recent past. Both methods confirm that tax elasticities moved with the cycle, which can be attributed to the procyclical tax compliance tendencies and structural composition effects across tax bases. Comparison of VAT revenue gaps across Baltic countries during the recent recovery suggests that tax revenues rebounded fastest in Estonia, followed by Lithuania and Latvia. Overall, the results of the study emphasize the importance of accounting for cyclical variation in tax elasticities when making short-term tax revenue projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania," IMF Working Papers 2011/270, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/270
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25364
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The collection efficiency of the Value Added Tax: Theory and international evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 391-410.
    3. Mr. John D Brondolo, 2009. "Collecting Taxes During an Economic Crisis: Challenges and Policy Options," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/017, International Monetary Fund.
    4. European Commission, 2013. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2013 edition," Taxation trends 2013, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    5. Burcu Aydin, 2010. "Cyclicality of Revenue and Structural Balances in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2010/216, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 77, European Central Bank.
    7. Ms. Cemile Sancak & Jing Xing & Ricardo Velloso, 2010. "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/071, International Monetary Fund.
    8. John Brondolo, 2009. "Collecting Taxes During an Economic Crisis; Challenges and Policy Options," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/17, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Agha, Ali & Haughton, Jonathan, 1996. "Designing VAT Systems: Some Efficiency Considerations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 303-308, May.
    10. Luiz de Mello, 2009. "Avoiding the Value Added Tax," Public Finance Review, , vol. 37(1), pages 27-46, January.
    11. European Commission, 2011. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2011 edition," Taxation trends 2011, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stavros Degiannakis & Timotheos Angelidis & George Filis, 2013. "Oil price shocks and volatility do predict stock market regimes," Working Papers 170, Bank of Greece.
    2. Karolina Konopczak & Aleksander Łożykowski, 2021. "Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 25-55.
    3. Fotini Economou & Ioanna Kountouri & Yannis Panagopoulos & Georgia Skintzi & Ekaterini Tsouma, 2022. "Estimating excise tax revenue elasticity and buoyancy for tobacco products and alcoholic beverages: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4557-4576, August.
    4. Karolina Konopczak & Aleksander Łożykowski, 2021. "Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, vol. 1, pages 25-55, January.
    5. Vincent Belinga & Ms. Dora Benedek & Ruud A. de Mooij & Mr. John Norregaard, 2014. "Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/110, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Maria Th. Kasselaki & Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 53-106.
    7. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "The determinants of vat revenue efficiency: recent evidence from Greece," Working Papers 181, Bank of Greece.
    8. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "Assessing the variability of indirect tax elasticity in Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2098-2109.
    9. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Francesco Berardini & Fabrizio Renzi, 2022. "Mind the Gap! The (unexpected) impact of COVID-19 pandemic on VAT revenue in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 669, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "Is there any evidence of VAT related buoyancy effects in Greece?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1762-1775.
    12. Zhou, Shuya & Zhou, Peiyan & Ji, Hannah, 2022. "Can digital transformation alleviate corporate tax stickiness: The mediation effect of tax avoidance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/327, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Francesco Berardini & Fabrizio Renzi, 2022. "Mind the Gap! The (unexpected) impact of COVID-19 pandemic on VAT revenue in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 669, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Antonio Gómez Gómez-Plana & Pedro Pascual Arzoz, 2011. "Fraude fiscal e IVA en España: incidencia en un modelo de equilibrio general," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 199(4), pages 9-52, December.
    4. Ms. Cemile Sancak & Jing Xing & Ricardo Velloso, 2010. "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/071, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Leon Bettendorf & Duncan van Limbergen, 2013. "The stability of tax elasticities in The Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 256, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. European Commission, 2010. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2010 edition," Taxation trends 2010, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    7. European Commission, 2011. "Tax Reforms in EU Member States 2011: tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability," Taxation Papers 28, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    8. Leon Bettendorf & Duncan van Limbergen, 2013. "The stability of tax elasticities in The Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 256.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Luca Barbone & Misha V. Belkindas & Leon Bettendorf & Richard Bird & Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovskiy & Michael Smart, 2013. "Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States," CASE Network Reports 0116, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Steven A. Symansky & Thomas Baunsgaard, 2009. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/23, International Monetary Fund.
    11. MAIMOUNA DIAKITE & Jean-François BRUN, 2016. "Tax Potential and Tax Effort: An Empirical Estimation for Non-Resource Tax Revenue and VAT’s Revenue," EcoMod2016 9537, EcoMod.
    12. Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2021. "The value-added tax and growth: design matters," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1211-1241, October.
    13. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Richard M. Bird, 2011. "Value-Added Tax: Onward and Upward?," Chapters, in: Emilio Albi & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "Is there any evidence of VAT related buoyancy effects in Greece?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1762-1775.
    15. Machado, Roberto & Zuloeta, José, 2012. "The Impact of the Business Cycle on Elasticities of Tax Revenue in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4064, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Ossowski, Rolando & Gonzáles-Castillo, Alberto, 2012. "Manna from Heaven: The Impact of Nonrenewable Resource Revenues on Other Revenues of Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4045, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. European Commission, 2012. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2012 edition," Taxation trends 2012, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    18. Gilles Mourre & Savina Princen, 2015. "Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 018, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Joaquim Sarmento, 2016. "The Determinants Of Value Added Tax Revenues In The European Union," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 21(2), pages 79-99.
    20. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "The determinants of vat revenue efficiency: recent evidence from Greece," Working Papers 181, Bank of Greece.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.