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Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance

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  • Ardagna, Silvia

Abstract

Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that financial markets value fiscal discipline. Interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries' fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial fiscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose fiscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries' initial fiscal conditions and on the type of fiscal consolidations. Fiscal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government defcit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices. JEL Classification: E62, E44, H62

Suggested Citation

  • Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," Working Paper Series 390, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 488-545.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    3. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    4. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 411, European Central Bank.
    5. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
    7. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "Yield-curve movements and fiscal retrenchments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1675-1685, December.
    8. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Afonso, Antonio & Strauch, Rolf, 2007. "Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from the EU," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 261-276, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco & Benedetti, Marina, 2005. "Searching for Non-monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(S1), pages 197-217, October.
    2. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    3. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
    4. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November.
    5. Ondřej Schneider & Petr Hedbávný & Jan Zápal, 2007. "A Fiscal Rule that Has Teeth: A Suggestion for a “Fiscal Sustainability Council” Underpinned by the Financial Markets," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 32-53, March.
    6. Benedicta Marzinotto, 2015. "Embedded Macroeconomic Institutions: Italy's Fiscal U-Turn in the 1990s and Beyond," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(6), pages 1301-1318, November.
    7. Rosaria Rita Canale & Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Oreste Napolitano, 2008. "On keynesian effects of (apparent) non-keynesian fiscal policies," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-46.
    8. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab, 2012. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 945, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal expansions; Fiscal stabilizations; interest rates; stock market prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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