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Pack-Crack-Pack: Gerrymandering with Differential Turnout

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Bouton
  • Garance Genicot
  • Micael Castanheira De Moura
  • Allison Stashko

Abstract

This paper studies the manipulation of electoral maps by political parties, commonly referred to as gerrymandering. At the core of our analysis is the recognition that not all inhabitants of a district vote. This is important for gerrymandering as districts must have the same population size, but only voters matter for electoral outcomes. We propose a model of gerrymandering that allows for heterogeneity in voter turnout across individuals. This model reveals a new strategy for the gerrymanderers: the pattern is to pack-crack-pack along the turnout dimension. Specifically, parties benefit from packing low-turnout supporters and high-turnout opponents, while creating cracked districts that combine moderate-to-high-turnout supporters with lower-turnout opponents. These findings yield testable empirical implications about the relationship between partisan support, turnout rates, and electoral maps. Using a novel empirical strategy based on comparing maps proposed by Democrats and Republicans during the 2020 U.S. redistricting cycle, we test these predictions and find supporting evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Bouton & Garance Genicot & Micael Castanheira De Moura & Allison Stashko, 2024. "Pack-Crack-Pack: Gerrymandering with Differential Turnout," Working Papers ECARES 2024-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/378612
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chambers, Christopher P. & Miller, Alan D., 2010. "A Measure of Bizarreness," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 27-44, April.
    2. Chen, Jowei & Rodden, Jonathan, 2013. "Unintentional Gerrymandering: Political Geography and Electoral Bias in Legislatures," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 8(3), pages 239-269, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Redistricting; Gerrymandering; Electoral Maps; Turnout;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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