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Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches

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  • Arranz, M.

Abstract

This analysis was performed with data from 10 European Union countries in the period 1962-86 and is devoted to the changes in the structure of private consumption with respect to eight commodity groups. We began with eleven different approaches from which we chose four. In turn we then compared them with the SKIM model. A total of 880 equations have been estimated during the period 1962-84 and from that source of information we evaluated the forecasting accuracy for the period 1984-86. The main conclusion is that the Skim model, presented in this paper, generally performs better than the other models considered, (Rotterdam, loglinear, LES, Deaton and Muellbauer, and related models). The paper also analyses the evolution of Private Consumption in 15 European Union countries during the period 1960-2000, in comparison in the USA and Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Arranz, M., 2002. "Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches," Economic Development 54, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ecodev:54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. BARTEN, Anton P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," LIDAM Reprints CORE 34, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Barten, A. P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-73.
    3. BARTEN, Anton P., 1968. "Estimating demand equations," LIDAM Reprints CORE 21, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
    5. Guisan, M.C. & Arranz, M., 2001. "Consumption expenditure on Health and Education: Econometric models and evolution of OECD countries 1970-96," Economic Development 50, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    6. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    1. Guisan, M.C. & Arranz, M., 2001. "Consumption expenditure on Health and Education: Econometric models and evolution of OECD countries 1970-96," Economic Development 50, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private Consumption; Applied Econometric Models; European Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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