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Who will go down this year ? The Determinants of Promotion and Relegation in European Soccer Leagues

Author

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  • Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt
  • Bastien Drut

Abstract

Contributing to the lively debate on closed leagues (North American model) versus open leagues (European model) in professional sport league, this paper aims at determining the drivers of promotion and relegation in the major European soccer leagues. Using a large and original dataset (for example: club’s link with a billionaire, club listed in the stock market, etc.) and logistic regressions, our results show that institutional factors matter to settle in the elite. It also indicates that open leagues system in European soccer championships is de facto very similar to closed leagues system. Furthermore, our forecasting model can be of interest for soccer investors or bookmakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt & Bastien Drut, 2009. "Who will go down this year ? The Determinants of Promotion and Relegation in European Soccer Leagues," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-40, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2009-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wladimir Andreff, 2006. "New Perspectives in Sports Economics: A European View," Working Papers 0605, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    2. Thomas Hoehn & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Americanization of European football," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 3, pages 52-96, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Wladimir Andreff & Stefan Szymanski, 2006. "Handbook on the Economics of Sport," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00270122, HAL.
    4. Roger G. Noll, 2002. "The Economics of Promotion and Relegation in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 169-203, May.
    5. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Wladimir Andreff, 2006. "New Perspectives in Sports Economics: A European view," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00274643, HAL.
    7. Wladimir Andreff & Stefan Szymanski (ed.), 2006. "Handbook on the Economics of Sport," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3274.
    8. Stefan Szymanski & Tommaso M. Valletti, 2010. "Promotion and Relegation in Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 6, pages 198-228, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Mr. Bennett W Sutton & Mr. Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2002/149, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Wladimir Andreff, 2006. "New Perspectives in Sports Economics: The European View," IASE Conference Papers 0601, International Association of Sports Economists.
    11. Wladimir Andreff, 2006. "New Perspectives in Sports Economics: A European view," Post-Print halshs-00274643, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Braun, Erik & Gyimesi, András, 2021. "Van-e esélyük a feljutó csapatoknak a bennmaradásra? Az európai labdarúgó-bajnokságok összehasonlítása az első osztály előnye alapján [Do novice top teams have a chance of remaining?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 863-889.
    2. Matthieu Llorca & Thierry Teste, 2016. "Dépenses salariales et performance dans l’industrie du football," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 125-145.
    3. Harald Oberhofer & Tassilo Philippovich & Hannes Winner, 2015. "Firm Survival in Professional Sports," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 59-85, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics of Sport; Organization of Sports Leagues; Soccer; Promotion and Relegation; Economic Forecasting; Regional Economy; Billionaires; Stock Market.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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