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Japanese GDP Forecasters Are Pressimistic in Boom, Optimistic in Recession, and Always Too Jumpy

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  • Ashiya, M.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not correlated with the magnitude of average forecast errors. These results together are consistent with neither the rational expectations hypothesis nor reputation models with rational and strategic forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashiya, M., 2000. "Japanese GDP Forecasters Are Pressimistic in Boom, Optimistic in Recession, and Always Too Jumpy," ISER Discussion Paper 0513, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0513
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    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2000/dp0513.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amir, Eli & Ganzach, Yoav, 1998. "Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 333-347, November.
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    3. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    4. Francis, J & Philbrick, D, 1993. "Analysts Decisions As Products Of A Multitask Environment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-230.
    5. Ashiya, Masahiro & Doi, Takero, 2001. "Herd behavior of Japanese economists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 343-346, November.
    6. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    7. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FORECASTS ; MACROECONOMICS ; EXPECTATIONS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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