IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dpr/wpaper/0513.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Japanese GDP Forecasters Are Pressimistic in Boom, Optimistic in Recession, and Always Too Jumpy

Author

Listed:
  • Ashiya, M.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not correlated with the magnitude of average forecast errors. These results together are consistent with neither the rational expectations hypothesis nor reputation models with rational and strategic forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashiya, M., 2000. "Japanese GDP Forecasters Are Pressimistic in Boom, Optimistic in Recession, and Always Too Jumpy," ISER Discussion Paper 0513, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0513
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2000/dp0513.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    2. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    3. Ashiya, Masahiro & Doi, Takero, 2001. "Herd behavior of Japanese economists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 343-346, November.
    4. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    5. Amir, Eli & Ganzach, Yoav, 1998. "Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 333-347, November.
    6. Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
    7. Francis, J & Philbrick, D, 1993. "Analysts Decisions As Products Of A Multitask Environment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-230.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2002. "Accuracy and rationality of Japanese institutional forecasters," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 203-213, April.
    2. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2003. "Testing the rationality of Japanese GDP forecasts: the sign of forecast revision matters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 263-269, February.
    3. Taoufik Elkemali, 2023. "Uncertainty and Financial Analysts’ Optimism: A Comparison between High-Tech and Low-Tech European Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
    5. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ichiue, Hibiki & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Shigemi, Yosuke, 2013. "Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 526-530.
    6. Basu, Sudipta & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "Loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 171-203, December.
    7. Zhang, Chao & Shrider, David G. & Han, Dun & Wu, Yanran, 2022. "Accurate forecasts attract clients; Biased forecasts keep them happy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Mehtab Arshad Butt & Haroon Shafi & Kashif-Ur-Rehman & Rana Rashid Rehman & Hafiz Muhammad Shoaib, 2011. "Investor’s Dilemma: Fundamentals or Biasness in Investment Decision," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(2), pages 122-127.
    10. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O'Connor, 2014. "Rationality in Precious Metals Forward Markets: Evidence of Behavioural Deviations in the Gold Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp462, IIIS.
    11. Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.
    12. Taoufik Elkemali, 2024. "Intangible Assets and Analysts’ Overreaction and Underreaction to Earnings Information: Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, April.
    13. Zitzewitz, Eric, 2001. "Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers," Research Papers 1802, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    14. Friesen, Geoffrey & Weller, Paul A., 2006. "Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 333-365, November.
    15. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Leppin, Julian Sebstian, 2014. "The Relation Between Overreaction in Forecasts and Uncertainty: A Nonlinear Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100284, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Luiz Félix & Roman Kräussl & Philip Stork, 2021. "Strategic bias and popularity effect in the prediction of economic surprises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1095-1117, September.
    18. Anna M. Cianci & Satoris S. Culbertson, 2010. "The Impact of Motivational and Cognitive Factors on Optimistic Earnings Forecasts," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Huang, Lixin & Li, Wei & Wang, Hong & Wu, Liansheng, 2022. "Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 643-659.
    20. Francesca Pancotto & Filippo Maria Pericoli & Marco Pistagnesi, 2013. "Inefficiency in Survey Exchange Rates Forecasts," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 090, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FORECASTS ; MACROECONOMICS ; EXPECTATIONS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0513. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Librarian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isosujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.