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Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists

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  • Ashiya, M.
  • Doi, T.

Abstract

Suppose competent economists obtain common information on business forecasts, and incompetent economists obtain independent information. If no one knows who is able, young economists mimic others because a forecast different from others indicated inability when it proves wrong. An older economist, however, can infer his ability from past information. Those who got useful information stop herding to signal their ability when economists are heterogeneous. All economists herd together when economists are homogenous and the merit from signaling is small. The empirical results suggests that Japanese economists are more homogenous than American.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashiya, M. & Doi, T., 1999. "Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists," ISER Discussion Paper 0479, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0479
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    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/1999/dp0479.zip
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FORECASTS ; UNCERTAINTY ; INFORMATION;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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