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Flood risk and financial stability: Evidence from a stress test for the Netherlands

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  • Francesco Caloia
  • David-Jan Jansen

Abstract

If climate change continues unabated, extreme weather events are expected to occur more frequently. Rising flood incidence will especially affect low-lying countries, both through property damage and macro-financial adversity. Using a stress test framework and geocoded data on real-estate exposures for Dutch banks, we study when floods would start impairing financial stability. We find that the banking sector is capitalised sufficiently to withstand floods in unprotected areas, where there is relatively little real estate. However, capital depletions would increase quickly in case more severe floods hit the densely-populated western part of the Netherlands. These findings have possible implications for various policy areas, including macroprudential policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Caloia & David-Jan Jansen, 2021. "Flood risk and financial stability: Evidence from a stress test for the Netherlands," Working Papers 730, DNB.
    • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:730
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Caloia & David-Jan Jansen & Remco van der Molen & Lu Zhang & Helga Koo, 2022. "Real estate and climate transition risk: A financial stability perspective," Occasional Studies 1904, DNB.
    2. Francesco Caloia & David-Jan Jansen & Kees van Ginkel, 2023. "Floods and financial stability: Scenario-based evidence from below sea level," Working Papers 796, DNB.
    3. Peterson K. Ozili & Paul Terhemba Iorember, 2024. "Financial stability and sustainable development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2620-2646, July.
    4. Victor Cardenas, 2024. "Managing Financial Climate Risk in Banking Services: A Review of Current Practices and the Challenges Ahead," Papers 2405.17682, arXiv.org.
    5. Shala, Iliriana & Schumacher, Benno, 2022. "The impact of natural disasters on banks' impairment flow: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 36/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Zanin, Luca & Calabrese, Raffaella & Thorburn, Connor Innes, 2024. "Climate stress testing for mortgage default probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stability; flood risk; real estate; stress test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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