IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp471.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Georg Erber
  • Ulrich Fritsche

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of estimating and forecasting productivity growth trends in the US and Germany from the perspective of a business cycle researcher who wants to use the available information in time series of aggregate labor productivity to derive a model for short- and/or long-term forecasts of labour productivity. We will use stability tests and a deterministic model with structural breaks that is estimated using the methods mentioned in Hansen (2001). The methodological approach also draws on Gordon (2003) using a Kalman filter specification. We discuss the implications of unit-root assumptions for long-term forecasts and argue in favor of a near unit-root modelling. That implies a convergence of productivity growth rates in both countries within the next 15 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Erber & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 471, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp471
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.42903.de/dp471.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Julio J. Rotemberg & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Inflexible Prices and Procyclical Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(4), pages 851-874.
    4. Rosenberg,Nathan, 1994. "Exploring the Black Box," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521459556, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Current trends in the analysis of Canadian productivity growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 5-25, January.
    2. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2014. "A time series analysis of labor productivity. Italy versus the European countries and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 622-628.
    3. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eden, Benjamin, 2007. "Inefficient trade patterns: Excessive trade, cross-hauling and dumping," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 175-188, September.
    2. Richard E. Baldwin & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 2, pages 25-57, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. G Cameron, 1996. "Innovation and Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0277, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Jin, Wei & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2016. "On the mechanism of international technology diffusion for energy technological progress," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 39-61.
    6. Benjamin Eden, 2006. "International Seigniorage Payments," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0622, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    7. Kenneth Carlaw & Richard Lipsey, 2011. "Sustained endogenous growth driven by structured and evolving general purpose technologies," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 563-593, October.
    8. Madden, Gary G & Coble-Neal, Grant, 2002. "Internet economics and policy: An Australian perspective," MPRA Paper 10686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chrysostomos Mantzavinos & Douglass C. North & Syed Shariq, 2015. "Aprendizaje, instituciones y desempeno económico," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 9(1), pages 11-34, June.
    10. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Yuen Yee Yen, 2016. "A global analysis of the impact of research output on economic growth," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(2), pages 855-874, August.
    11. Feijó, Carmem Aparecida & Araújo, Eliane & Nassif, André, 2017. "A structuralist-Keynesian model for determining the optimum real exchange rate for Brazil’s economic development process: 1999-2015," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    12. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    13. Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder, 2011. "Energy Efficiency and Technological Change," Chapters, in: Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Jamee K. Moudud, 2010. "Strategic Competition, Dynamics, and the Role of the State," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4241.
    15. Pace Giuseppe, 2004. "Incubators as catalysts of academic spin-offs: evidence from the Israeli case-study," Urban/Regional 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2014. "Explaining the Slow Pace of Energy Technological Innovation: Why Market Conditions Matter," CCEP Working Papers 1401, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Rossi, Federica, 2002. "An introductory overview of innovation studies," MPRA Paper 9106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2008.
    18. Liu, Taoxiong & Liu, Zhuohao, 2022. "A growth model with endogenous technological revolutions and cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Stolpe, Michael, 1995. "Technology and the dynamics of specialization in open economies," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 738, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Chrysostomos Mantzavinos & Douglas C. North & Syed Shariq, 2003. "Learning, Institutions, and Economic Performance," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2003_13, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.