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Currency Futures' Risk Premia and Risk Factors

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  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Jürgen von Hagen
  • Casper G. de Vries

Abstract

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling period. The FFP appears to be a pre-crisis phenomenon and is only observed for maturities longer than about one month. When examining whether the observed excess returns of futures contracts represent a fair compensation for currency risk, we find that non-durable consumption risk and market risk can explain excess currency returns. But only in the pre-crisis period and when the maturity of the assets is longer than about three months.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Casper G. de Vries, 2020. "Currency Futures' Risk Premia and Risk Factors," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1866, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1866
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward premium puzzle; uncovered interest parity; futures rates; risk premium; currency excess returns; capital asset pricing model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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