IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp1059.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Bozzoli
  • Tilman Brück
  • Tony Muhumuza

Abstract

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück & Tony Muhumuza, 2010. "Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1059, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.361417.de/dp1059.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andy Sumner & Richard Mallett, 2013. "Capturing Multidimensionality: What does a Human Wellbeing Conceptual Framework Add to the Analysis of Vulnerability?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 671-690, September.
    2. O’Reilly, Colin, 2015. "Household Recovery from Internal Displacement in Northern Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 203-215.
    3. Giacomo De Luca & Marijke Verpoorten, 2011. "From Vice to Virtue? Civil War and Social Capital in Uganda," HiCN Working Papers 111, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. repec:lic:licosd:29811 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2014. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(1), pages 426-472.
    2. Sean Nicholson, 2005. "How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    3. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2008. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on the College Drop-Out Decision: A Direct Approach Using a New Panel Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2163-2184, December.
    5. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measures Of Family Decision Processes For Econometric Analysis Of Schooling Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 81-99, January.
    6. Basit Zafar, 2011. "How Do College Students Form Expectations?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(2), pages 301-348.
    7. Audrey Light & Kathleen McGarry, 2004. "Why Parents Play Favorites: Explanations for Unequal Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1669-1681, December.
    8. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776, Elsevier.
    10. Hogan, Vincent, 2004. "Wage aspirations and unemployment persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1623-1643, November.
    11. Christian Stoltenberg & Arne Uhlendorf, 2022. "Consumption Choices and Earnings Expectations: Empirical Evidence and Structural Estimation," Working Papers 2022-15, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    12. Koşar, Gizem & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2023. "Workers' Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 16013, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Ana Fernandes & Martin Huber & Giannina Vaccaro, 2021. "Gender differences in wage expectations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-24, June.
    14. Luigi Pistaferri, 2003. "Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labor Supply," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(3), pages 729-754, July.
    15. Bleemer, Zachary & Zafar, Basit, 2018. "Intended college attendance: Evidence from an experiment on college returns and costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 184-211.
    16. Brian Blackburn & Aprajit Mahajan & Alessandro Tarozzi & Joanne Yoong, "undated". "Bednets, Information and Malaria in Orissa," Discussion Papers 08-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    17. Caplin, Andrew & Gregory, Victoria & Lee, Eungik & Leth-Petersen, Søren & Sæverud, Johan, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 17987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Andrew Caplin & Victoria Gregory & Eungik Lee & Søren Leth-Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," NBER Working Papers 31019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Andrew Caplin & Victoria Gregory & Eungik Lee & Soeren Leth-Petersen & Johan Saeverud, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," CEBI working paper series 23-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
      • Andrew Caplin & Victoria Gregory & Eungik Lee & Soren Leth-Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2023. "Subjective Earnings Risk," Working Papers 2023-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Jan 2024.
    18. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Kunaschk, Max & Lang, Julia & Stephan, Gesine & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2023. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," IZA Discussion Papers 16426, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Sorokina, Olga V., 2008. "Credit Constraints in the Demand for Education: Evidence from Survey Data," MPRA Paper 11932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Denderski, Piotr & Stoltenberg, Christian A., 2020. "Risk sharing with private and public information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; expectations; war; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.