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Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

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  • Carlos Bozzoli
  • Tilman Brück
  • Tony Muhumuza

Abstract

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück & Tony Muhumuza, 2010. "Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1059, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1059
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andy Sumner & Richard Mallett, 2013. "Capturing Multidimensionality: What does a Human Wellbeing Conceptual Framework Add to the Analysis of Vulnerability?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 671-690, September.
    2. Giacomo De Luca & Marijke Verpoorten, 2011. "From Vice to Virtue? Civil War and Social Capital in Uganda," HiCN Working Papers 111, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. repec:lic:licosd:29811 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. O’Reilly, Colin, 2015. "Household Recovery from Internal Displacement in Northern Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 203-215.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; expectations; war; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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