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Who Identifies with the AfD? Explorative Analyses in Longitudinal Perspective

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  • Daniel Baron

Abstract

Recently, international scholars found two factors that account for partisanship with right-wing populist parties: feelings of economic insecurity and perceived cultural threat. When explaining increasing partisanship with the Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, AfD), the first successful right-wing populist party on the state level in Germany, results remain somewhat unclear, especially when it comes to longitudinal analyses. Based on social psychological explanations of party identification and data from the German Socio-Economic Panel 2014 till 2016, this research problem will be tackled throughout this paper. Descriptive analyses show that party identifications among AfD-partisans as well as among partisans of other established parties in the German Bundestag remain stable throughout the observation period. There is a trend of increasing feelings of cultural threat among partisans of all parties, not only of the AfD. To test both explanatory variables, fixed effects and pooled OLS-regressions were used. Only the cultural threat indicator proves to be a significant predictor for strong identification with the AfD.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Baron, 2018. "Who Identifies with the AfD? Explorative Analyses in Longitudinal Perspective," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 983, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp983
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Marcel Lubbers & Marcel Coenders, 2017. "Nationalistic attitudes and voting for the radical right in Europe," European Union Politics, , vol. 18(1), pages 98-118, March.
    3. Martin Kroh & Karolina Fetz, 2016. "Das Profil der AfD-AnhängerInnen hat sich seit Gründung der Partei deutlich verändert," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(34), pages 711-719.
    4. Karl Brenke & Alexander S. Kritikos, 2017. "Wählerstruktur im Wandel," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 84(29), pages 595-606.
    5. Köppl-Turyna, Monika & Grunewald, Mara, 2017. "Gründe für die Wahl zugunsten rechtspopulistischer Parteien," IW-Kurzberichte 17.2017, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    6. Goebel Jan & Grabka Markus M. & Liebig Stefan & Kroh Martin & Richter David & Schröder Carsten & Schupp Jürgen, 2019. "The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 345-360, April.
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