IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/019458.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas

Author

Listed:
  • Sofia Castro Vargas

Abstract

Los ecosistemas marinos son particularmente vulnerables a cambios en las variables climáticas, haciendo que las actividades pesqueras sean muy riesgosas en los tiempos de la emergencia climática. De hecho, el colapso de algunas poblaciones de peces debido a incrementos en la temperatura del agua están empezando a hacerse evidentes. En Filipinas, las comunidades pesqueras rurales tienen relaciones altamente extorsivas con grupos armados, haciéndolas aún más vulnerables. Utilizando datos de temperatura del océano, conflicto y producción pesquera para los anos 2003-2018, este artículo examina el efecto de choques en la temperatura del océano en la violencia asociada al conflicto armado en Filipinas. Los resultados encontrados son concluyentes hacia un efecto positivo y estadísticamente significativo de los choques en la temperatura del océano sobre variables de conflicto armado como el número de eventos y las muertes asociadas a ellos. El efecto se da debido a los efectos negativos que dichos choques tienen sobre la producción agrícola y pesquera. Utilizando información sobre la dinámica del conflicto armado y la pesca para la Península de Zamboanga, este artículo presenta un estudio de caso que documenta los mecanismos detrás de la relación entre la producción pesquera y el conflicto armado. Los resultados proporcionan insumos para mejorar las políticas públicas relacionadas con las prácticas pesqueras sostenibles con el fin de reducir la vulnerabilidad de los pescadores al cambio climático en áreas de bajos ingresos y propensas a conflictos en los países en desarrollo.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofia Castro Vargas, 2021. "Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas," Documentos CEDE 19458, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:019458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/51702/dcede2021-41.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerpacio, Roberta V. & Labios, Jocelyn D. & Labios, Romeo V. & Diangkinay, Emma I., 2004. "Maize in the Philippines: Production Systems, Constraints, and Research Priorities," Maize Production Systems Papers 7650, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    2. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    3. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Climate change, rice crops, and violence," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 53(1), pages 66-83, January.
    4. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    5. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Rafael J. Santos Villagran, 2020. "Is Fish Brain Food or Brain Poison? Sea Surface Temperature, Methyl-mercury and Child Cognitive Development," NBER Working Papers 26957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gerdis Wischnath & Halvard Buhaug, 2014. "On climate variability and civil war in Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 709-721, February.
    7. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    8. Pomeroy, Robert & Parks, John & Pollnac, Richard & Campson, Tammy & Genio, Emmanuel & Marlessy, Cliff & Holle, Elizabeth & Pido, Michael & Nissapa, Ayut & Boromthanarat, Somsak & Thu Hue, Nguyen, 2007. "Fish wars: Conflict and collaboration in fisheries management in Southeast Asia," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 645-656, November.
    9. Jean-François Maystadt & Margherita Calderone & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 649-671.
    10. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    11. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    12. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    13. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Torres-Higuera, Paula, 2024. "Warm Days, Warmer Homes? Effects of Temperature Shocks on Time Allocation," Documentos CEDE 21133, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    3. Goyette, Jonathan & Smaoui, Maroua, 2022. "Low agricultural potential exacerbates the effect of temperature on civil conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Boxell, Levi, 2019. "Droughts, conflict, and the African slave trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 774-791.
    5. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
    6. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. Sara Balestri & Raul Caruso, 2024. "Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(10), pages 1530-1556, October.
    8. Lu, Yifan & Yamazaki, Satoshi, 2023. "Fish to fight: Does catching more fish increase conflicts in Indonesia?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    10. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Valeria Costantini & Keti Lelo & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga & Giorgia Sforna, 2020. "Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-52, December.
    11. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    12. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke & Edward Miguel, 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 399-405, December.
    13. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin & J. Terrence McCabe & Jaroslav Tir, 2018. "Drought, Local Institutional Contexts, and Support for Violence in Kenya," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(7), pages 1544-1578, August.
    14. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. repec:fpr:2020cp:3(3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    17. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    18. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    20. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    21. Baysan, Ceren & Burke, Marshall & González, Felipe & Hsiang, Solomon & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 434-452.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cambio climático; conflicto armado; pesquerías; Filipinas; ecosistemas marinos.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000089:019458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Universidad De Los Andes-Cede (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceandco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.