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My neighbour’s war: Spatial dependence of conflict incidence in West Africa

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  • Mario A. Maggioni
  • Sara Balestri

Abstract

Although recent empirical literature acknowledges that organized violence tends to cluster geographically, the limited use of disaggregated data and of accurate spatial estimation techniques fail in explaining the spatial structure of conflict events. In this paper we analyse conflict incidence in West Africa through the provision of an illustrative case (the Mano River Region) by: (i) performing the analysis with the smallest possible sub-national disaggregated areas; (ii) taking into account the location of valuable resources (lootable diamonds and gold); and (iii) applying the most suitable spatial econometric specifications. Our results show the existence of relevant cross-border spillover effects of conflict events; and confirm that natural valuable resources are strong predictors of organized violence location. Moreover, we demonstrate that events concerning incompatibilities on government and/or territory are more strongly related to diamonds location, whereas events between no-state armed groups are indifferently connected to the location of both valuable resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario A. Maggioni & Sara Balestri, 2019. "My neighbour’s war: Spatial dependence of conflict incidence in West Africa," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis1903, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    • Handle: RePEc:dis:wpaper:dis1903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2004. "Civil Wars and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 138-151, January.
    2. Salehyan, Idean & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2006. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 335-366, April.
    3. Franzese, Robert J. & Hays, Jude C., 2007. "Spatial Econometric Models of Cross-Sectional Interdependence in Political Science Panel and Time-Series-Cross-Section Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 140-164, April.
    4. James D. Fearon, 2004. "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 275-301, May.
    5. Mark Gersovitz & Norma Kriger, 2013. "What Is a Civil War?A Critical Review of Its Definition and (Econometric) Consequences," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 159-190, August.
    6. Balestri Sara & Maggioni Mario A., 2014. "Blood Diamonds, Dirty Gold and Spatial Spill-overs Measuring Conflict Dynamics in West Africa," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 551-564, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
    • N57 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Africa; Oceania

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