IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dia/wpaper/dt200705.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the End of the MFA a threat for the Tunisian Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Ali Marouani

    (DIAL, Université Paris1-Panthéon-Sorbonne/IEDES.)

Abstract

(english) The end of the Multifiber Agreement in January 2005 had a negative impact on the Tunisian apparel industry, but the effects were weaker than expected. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the article provides a prospective assessment of the impact on Tunisia of the phase out of the MFA and of the agreement which manages the rate of growth of Chinese clothing exports to Europe until the end of 2007. The main findings are an increase in unemployment and wage inequality, but no significant effects on the main macroeconomic variables if the exchange rate management takes into account this shock. _________________________________ (français) Le démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres en janvier 2005 a eu un impact négatif sur l’industrie d’habillement tunisienne, mais les effets ont été plus limités que prévu. A l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique l’article propose une évaluation prospective de l’impact sur la Tunisie du démantèlement de l’AMF et de l’accord d’auto-limitation des exportations de vêtements qui prend fin en 2007. La principale conclusion consiste en un accroissement du chômage et des inégalités de salaires. Cependant, en présence d’une gestion adéquate du taux de change par la Banque centrale, les principales autres variables macro-économiques sont peu affectées par le choc.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2007. "Is the End of the MFA a threat for the Tunisian Economy?," Working Papers DT/2007/05, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200705
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dial.ird.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2007-05.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xinshen DIAO & Terry L. ROE & A. Erinç YELDAN, 1999. "How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 59-88, March.
    2. Wendner, Ronald, 1999. "A Calibration Procedure of Dynamic CGE Models for Non-steady State Situations Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 265-287, June.
    3. Walsh, Frank, 1999. "A Multisector Model of Efficiency Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 351-376, April.
    4. Fontana, Marzia & Wood, Adrian, 2000. "Modeling the Effects of Trade on Women, at Work and at Home," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1173-1190, July.
    5. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Hongyi Li, 1999. "Quantifying the fiscal effects of trade reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2162, The World Bank.
    6. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    7. Bulow, Jeremy I & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy,Discrimination, and Keynesian Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 376-414, July.
    8. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-280, May.
    9. Go, Delfin S., 1994. "External shocks, adjustment policies and investment in a developing economy: Illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 229-261, August.
    10. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    11. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S., 1998. "The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 677-714, December.
    12. Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Relative Wages, Efficiency Wages, and Keynesian Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 383-388, May.
    13. repec:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:177-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. George A. Akerlof, 1982. "Labor Contracts as Partial Gift Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(4), pages 543-569.
    15. Yazid Dissou, 2002. "Dynamic Effects in Senegal of the Regional Trade Agreement Among UEMOA Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 177-199, February.
    16. Baldwin,Richard E. & Francois,Joseph F. (ed.), 1999. "Dynamic Issues in Commercial Policy Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521641715, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marouani, Mohamed A., 2005. "The Impact of the Multifiber Agreement Phaseout on Unemployment in Tunisia: A Prospective Dynamic Analysis," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 39, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:got:cegedp:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4345 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2009. "Is the End of the MFA a Threat?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 99-110, February.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5173 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marco Guerrazzi, 2020. "Efficiency-Wage Competition: What Happens as the Number of Players Increases?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(1), pages 13-35, March.
    7. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2000. "Ouverture commerciale et emploi. Un modèle d'équilibre général avec salaires d'efficience appliqué à la Tunisie," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(3), pages 557-569.
    8. John G. Sessions & Nikolaos Theodoropoulos, 2014. "Tenure, Wage Profiles and Monitoring," Research in Labor Economics, in: New Analyses of Worker Well-Being, volume 38, pages 105-162, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Ourania Karakosta & Nikos Tsakiris, 2009. "Indirect Tax Reforms and Public Goods under Imperfect Competition," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 5-2009, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    10. John G. Sessions & John D. Skåtun, 2017. "Performance-Related Pay, Efficiency Wages and the Shape of the Tenure-Earnings Profile," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(3), pages 295-319, June.
    11. Cahill, Miles B., 2000. "Exploring the interaction between efficiency wages and labor market frictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 121-137.
    12. André Zylberberg, 1994. "Effort et contrats : quelques enseignements concernant le marché du travail," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 113(2), pages 1-20.
    13. Bai, Peiwen & Cheng, Wenli, 2020. "Relative earnings and firm performance: Evidence from publicly-listed firms in China, 2005–2012," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 279-290.
    14. Erica L. Groshen & Mark E. Schweitzer, 1996. "Macro- and microeconomic consequences of wage rigidity," Working Papers (Old Series) 9607, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim, 2013. "Forward-looking and myopic regional Computable General Equilibrium models: How significant is the distinction?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 160-176.
    16. Drolet, Marie & Morissette, Rene, 1998. "Recent Canadian Evidence on Job Quality by Firm Size," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1998128e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    17. Jonas Agell, 2004. "Why are Small Firms Different? Managers’ Views," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(3), pages 437-452, October.
    18. Jinpeng Ma, 2004. "Jobless Recovering and Equilibrium Involuntary Unemployment with a Simple Efficiency Wage Model," Departmental Working Papers 200404, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    19. Stadler, Manfred, 1998. "Dual labor markets, unemployment and endogenous growth," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 126, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    20. Albert Max & Meckl JuÈrgen, 2001. "Efficiency-Wage Unemployment and Intersectoral Wage Differentials in a Heckscher- Ohlin Model," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 287-301, August.
    21. William T. Dickens & Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin Lang & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Employee Crime, Monitoring, and the Efficiency Wage Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 2356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Sessions, John G., 2008. "Wages, supervision and sharing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 653-672, November.
    23. Carter, Thomas J., 2005. "Money and efficiency wages: the neglected effect of employment on efficiency," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 199-209, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE models; employment; textiles; apparel; trade; Tunisia; modèle EGC; emploi; textile; habillement; commerce; Tunisie.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Loic Le Pezennec (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diallfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.